Iran leadership change by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for an Iran leadership change by June 30 is currently priced at 0.00, indicating a perceived probability of zero. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current political situation in Iran, including the continued hold on power by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The market's price would likely increase if there were signs of significant unrest or opposition to Khamenei's leadership, or if there were credible reports of a potential successor emerging. Conversely, any indications that Khamenei's grip on power remains strong and unchallenged would likely keep the price at its current level. The market will close on December 31, 2026, and resolve to "Yes" if Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before then, or "No" if he maintains his position until the market's closure date.