polymarket
Politics
Iran leadership change by April 30?
April 30
0%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 44 days ·
High 42% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -99.1pp
· 30d -99.5pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in this event
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