Iran leadership change by September 30?

Settles Jul 01, 2027 (240d) All outcomes: Iran leadership change by...?

Embed these odds

Paste this into any web page or blog post. The odds refresh every minute.

Theme
Preview
chance of YES0%
Price range (120d)
0–10%
30d -98 pts · 7d -92 pts
24h volume
—
USDC traded
Open interest
$1.1M
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

December 3114%$25.0K
November 308%$37.1K
May 310%—
June 300%—

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

Related news