Iran leadership change by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for an Iran leadership change by December 31 asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date. The current price implies a 20% probability that this event will occur, reflecting known facts about Khamenei's continued influence in Iranian politics. Factors such as internal power struggles, external pressures, or potential changes in government policies could impact the likelihood of a leadership change, potentially driving the YES price up if these factors increase or down if they decrease. The market's resolution is tied to Khamenei's ability to act as de facto leader, and any event that removes him from this position would trigger a "Yes" outcome.