What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Elon Musk

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (826d) 24h volume 152 Open interest 915.7K Event 2028 Republican presidential nominee

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 40 days · High 0% · Low 0% · 7d +300.0pp · 30d +300.0pp

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market currently indicates a 0% probability that Elon Musk will be the nominee for the Republican party in the 2028 presidential election. This assessment is informed by the fact that Elon Musk has not publicly expressed interest in pursuing a career in politics and has not been involved in any notable political activities. Additionally, there are no known facts or developments that would suggest he is being considered as a potential candidate at this time. The current price of 0.00 implies that market participants do not perceive him as a viable contender for the nomination. Any changes to this assessment would likely require significant new information about Musk's political ambitions or involvement in the Republican party's nomination process.

Generated Jul 25, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
0.2¢	1	0.3¢	201
0.1¢	814	0.4¢	53367
		0.5¢	120000
		0.6¢	14
		0.7¢	97000

Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 0.2¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.