Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market currently assigns a 1% probability to Greg Abbott winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, as reflected in the YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current political landscape and the candidates' relative positions. The market's low expectation for Abbott's chances may be influenced by his lack of experience in national politics and the strong reputation of other potential candidates. A significant shift in public opinion or a major development in the campaign could potentially increase the YES price, while a further erosion of Abbott's support or the emergence of a stronger challenger could lead to a decrease in the price. The market will resolve on November 7, 2028, when all three designated sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) declare a winner, or on January 20, 2029, if the race remains undecided at that time.