polymarket
Politics
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gavin Newsom
19%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 26% ·
Low 18%
· 7d -2.5pp
· 30d -5.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for Gavin Newsom's chances of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination currently indicates a 20% probability, with a YES price of 0.20. This assessment is informed by known facts about Newsom's political career and reputation, as well as his potential appeal to certain factions within the Democratic Party. The market will resolve on November 7, 2028, based on official sources from the Democratic Party, including any announcements or endorsements made prior to that date. Any changes in the nomination process or candidate selection before election day would not affect the outcome of this market.
Generated Jun 30, 2026
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