Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 9% probability that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. This assessment is informed by known facts about Ocasio-Cortez's political career and her potential to gain support within the Democratic Party. The current price does not reflect any speculation about who may ultimately win the nomination, but rather represents a snapshot of market participants' collective expectations at this point in time. Any changes that would increase the likelihood of Ocasio-Cortez winning the nomination, such as shifts in her political momentum or endorsements from influential party leaders, could drive the price up. Conversely, factors that decrease her chances, like significant policy disagreements with key Democratic constituencies or internal party opposition, could cause the price to decline.