Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The prediction market for Zohran Mamdani's chances of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination indicates a low probability of success, with a current YES price of 0.01. This suggests that market participants believe his candidacy is unlikely to gain significant traction. The current price is informed by the fact that Mamdani has not yet formally announced his candidacy and lacks significant political experience or connections within the party. Any developments that increase his visibility, such as a formal announcement or endorsements from prominent Democrats, could potentially drive up the YES price. Conversely, if Mamdani's campaign fails to gain momentum or faces setbacks, the current low probability of success is likely to remain unchanged until the market closes on November 7, 2028.