Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market for Elon Musk winning the 2028 US Presidential Election currently prices his victory at a 1% probability, with a YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about Musk's lack of political experience and the traditional barriers to entry for outsiders in presidential elections. The current price may be influenced by speculation about potential candidates or events that could impact the election outcome. A significant change in the market's perception of Musk's chances, such as a major endorsement or a shift in his public image, could cause the YES price to increase. Conversely, a decline in support for Musk or an emergence of stronger contenders could lead to a decrease in the YES price. The market will resolve on November 7, 2028, when all three designated sources (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) declare a winner, or on January 20, 2029, if no consensus is reached by then.