Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market currently indicates a 0% probability that Tom Cotton will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, with a YES price of $0.00. This assessment is informed by the fact that Tom Cotton has not yet announced his candidacy for the election and has not been considered a serious contender in previous presidential polls. The current market price reflects the lack of known facts or indicators suggesting a high likelihood of Cotton's victory. Any development that increases the likelihood of Cotton's candidacy, such as an official announcement or significant endorsements, could potentially drive up the YES price. Conversely, any news or events that diminish Cotton's chances, such as opposition from major political parties or unfavorable polling data, could lead to a decrease in the YES price.