Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market for Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election currently assigns a 2% probability to his victory, reflected in a YES price of 0.02. This assessment is informed by known facts such as Trump's current political standing and the competitive nature of the election. The market will resolve once all three designated sources - the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC - declare a winner, or on January 20, 2029, if no consensus has been reached by then. Any significant developments in Trump's campaign or the broader political landscape could impact the price, potentially driving it higher if his chances of winning improve or lower if they decline. Conversely, a shift towards a more competitive election or a strengthening opponent could push the price downward.