Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market currently assigns a 2% probability to Tucker Carlson winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, as reflected in the YES price of 0.02. This assessment is informed by known facts about Carlson's political career and public persona, which may influence market participants' perceptions of his likelihood of success. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development that would significantly alter the probability of a Carlson victory. Instead, it appears to be driven by broader expectations about his candidacy and its potential impact on the election outcome. Any significant changes in these factors could potentially move the YES price up or down, while events such as primary elections, debates, or shifts in public opinion may also influence market sentiment.