Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The prediction market for Zohran Mamdani winning the 2028 US Presidential Election currently reflects a 0% probability, with a YES price of $0.00. This assessment is informed by the fact that Zohran Mamdani has not yet announced his candidacy or gained significant traction in the political sphere. The current market price does not reflect any known facts about the election, as it is still more than two years away. Any changes to the market's YES price would likely be driven by developments such as Mamdani announcing his candidacy, gaining endorsements or support from prominent figures, or experiencing a significant surge in public opinion polls. Conversely, a decline in Mamdani's popularity or the emergence of other strong candidates could lead to a decrease in the YES price.