AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
XNYS
38.11
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
AUB
$38.11
—
Key stats
$38.11
- 52-Week Range
- $30.87 – $43.62
- YTD
- +7.29%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 49.17
- Straddle Price
- $5.17
- Market Cap
- $5.5B
- Open
- $38.53
- Day Range
- $37.88 – $38.92
- Volume
- 1,547,357
- Prev Close
- $38.30
Fair Value
MODEL: NEUTRAL
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.21% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.87 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.55% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.03% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +42.8pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 19.5% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.5B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 9.2% |
| Book / Price | 95.0% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Bank Quality Adj | ×0.90 (target ROE vs peer median) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 68.5% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 23.5% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.15 |
| Quality Score | 4/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | -3.4% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $39.84 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $38.24 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 12.7% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.3B |
| Market Cap | $5B |
Peers used for multiples: ONB, SFNC, SSB, UMBF, VLY, WSBC, WTFC
(filtered from 8 ETF-co-members; sector bias active)
60-Day Conviction
2%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 16, 2026
$38.11
α +0.0%
rank 9%
conviction
1%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 15, 2026
$38.19
α +0.2%
rank 9%
conviction
6%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 13, 2027
$38.09
α -0.0%
rank 9%
conviction
2%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $24.49 | 23% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $6.81 | 18% | |
| Peer P/E | $22.85 | 7% | median 10.6× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 11.0× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/B | $38.22 | 10% | median 1.1× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $33.09 | 3% | median 2.3× · 7 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $39.84 | 39% | stability 87% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $37.91 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew -0.17 |
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS (6022) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $5.5B
- Employees
- 3,064
- List Date
- 1993-10-06
- CIK
- 0000883948
- Next Earnings
- 2026-10-20 (Pre-Market)
- EPS Forecast
- $0.96 (6 est.)
- Headquarters
- Glen Allen, VA
- Homepage
- https://www.atlanticunionbank.com
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp is a financial and bank holding company based in the U.S. Through its community bank subsidiary and non-bank financial services affiliates, the company provides financial services, including banking, trust, and wealth management. It offers consumers and businesses a wide range of banking and related financial services, including checking, savings, certificates of deposit, and other depository services, as well as loans for commercial, industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer purposes. The company operates through two reportable operating segments: Wholesale…
Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.36% | 7.44% | 9.88% | -6.28% | 2.22% | 9.35% | 4.00% |
| Feb | 9.32% | -1.69% | -4.24% | -2.26% | -3.57% | -6.34% | -1.46% |
| Mar | 1.40% | -5.39% | -6.31% | 6.55% | -11.36% | -5.00% | -3.35% |
| Apr | 0.23% | -7.76% | -17.81% | -8.79% | -8.40% | 4.61% | -6.32% |
| May | 3.66% | 2.29% | -5.44% | 0.03% | 6.72% | -0.76% | 1.08% |
| Jun | -12.39% | 0.12% | 1.01% | 2.53% | 5.43% | 14.72% | 1.90% |
| Jul | -3.38% | 0.20% | 20.86% | 26.15% | -2.94% | -2.10% | 6.46% |
| Aug | 5.56% | -5.37% | -6.75% | 1.30% | 14.15% | -5.70% | 0.53% |
| Sep | 0.85% | -6.18% | -5.45% | -3.44% | -0.45% | -3.95% | -3.10% |
| Oct | -5.08% | 10.49% | 1.02% | 4.19% | -7.59% | -0.94%* | 0.35% |
| Nov | -13.67% | 4.27% | 5.96% | 12.82% | 2.55% | -- | 2.39% |
| Dec | 14.77% | -2.20% | 14.19% | -12.03% | 2.47% | -- | 3.44% |
| Total | -1.06% | -5.38% | 0.80% | 16.50% | -3.55% | 1.79% | 1.51% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $38.20
SMA 50: $39.75
SMA 200: $38.94
Current: $38.11
EMA 12: $38.05
EMA 26: $38.57
MACD: -0.5197 | Signal: 0.0875
BEARISH
ADX (14): 39.63
TREND
+DI: 21.69
−DI: 31.38
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 44.01
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 48.02
Stoch %D: 36.52
Williams %R: -45.34
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $39.05
BB Lower: $37.34
NEUTRAL
OBV: -12,039,494
Vol SMA 20: 1,214,058
Vol ROC: 46.78%
ATR: $0.75
True Range: $1.04
HV 20: 15.5%
HV 30: 15.3%
HV 60: 16.7%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis
ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES (AUB) - COMPREHENSIVE STOCK ANALYSIS
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH | Confidence Level: 6/10
Atlantic Union Bankshares is displaying mixed technical signals with a bearish momentum setup conflicting against positive news sentiment and fundamentally defensive characteristics. The stock is caught between technical deterioration and positive M&A narrative support. The primary driver is the announced Sandy Spring Bancorp acquisition ($1.6B deal, October 2024), which has created shareholder investigation activity. Key risks include ongoing M&A regulatory uncertainty, technical momentum deterioration, and elevated implied volatility suggesting market pricing in significant risk.
Investment Thesis: AUB presents a conflicted picture where positive acquisition-driven fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment are being undermined by deteriorating technical momentum and negative volume accumulation. The options market is pricing substantial volatility ($5.78 expected move over 43 days), suggesting significant uncertainty around deal completion or integration expectations.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: News sentiment is 60% positive (acquisition narrative, analyst coverage) but heavily weighted toward older, deal-announcement content (October 2024). Recent headlines (September 2026, July 2026) reflect positive positioning, but the concurrent shareholder investigation alerts (January-November 2025) indicate regulatory/legal headwinds that may be suppressing price action despite fundamental optimism.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction Analysis
| Timeframe | Direction | Assessment | |-----------|-----------|-----------| | Short-term (1-4 weeks) | BEARISH | Price ($37.92) trades below SMA20 ($38.68) and SMA50 ($40.34), indicating weakness | | Medium-term (1-3 months) | BEARISH | Price compressed below 50/200-day averages; -DI (37.03) >> +DI (11.89) signals downtrend control | | Long-term (3-12 months) | NEUTRAL-BEARISH | SMA200 ($38.89) provides resistance; stock cycling below key averages suggests consolidation range |
Support/Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | Relevance | Status | |-------|-------|-----------|--------| | Immediate Resistance | $39.95 | Bollinger Band upper; SMA20 | 2.7% above current | | Primary Resistance | $40.34 | SMA50; psychological level | 6.4% above current | | Critical Support | $37.41 | Bollinger Band lower; key floor | 1.3% below current | | Secondary Support | $37.00 | Psychological level | 2.4% below current | | Major Support | $38.89 | SMA200; long-term trend line | Recently broken |
Critical Observation: Price is walking the lower Bollinger Band ($37.41), indicating potential mean-reversion pressure toward $38.68 (middle band) or further breakdown.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 37.49 — Neutral Territory with Bearish Bias
- Reading falls in neutral zone (30-70) but trends toward oversold (<30)
- Suggests momentum weakness without yet reaching extreme oversold levels
- Potential for further downside before capitulation signals appear
MACD: -0.64 / Signal: 0.01 / Histogram: -0.66 — BEARISH CONFIRMATION
- MACD trades below signal line with negative histogram (-0.66)
- Indicates bearish momentum crossover
- Downtrend is established but histogram magnitude suggests momentum may be weakening slightly
- Critical watch: Any positive histogram crossing above zero could signal momentum reversal
Stochastic Oscillators: %K 29.40 / %D 34.71 — OVERSOLD SIGNAL
- %K approaching 30 (oversold threshold)
- %K below %D indicates bearish alignment
- Suggests potential bounce imminent if support holds at $37.41
Williams %R: -65.32 — BEARISH MOMENTUM
- Position near -80 (strong oversold) indicates sustained selling pressure
- Not yet at extreme (-80 to -100) which could trigger capitulation bounce
- Confirms downward momentum but still room to fall further
Bollinger Bands: Width 6.55 — NEUTRAL/CONTRACTING
- Band width is moderate ($39.95 - $37.41 = $2.54 range)
- Width of 6.55% suggests neither extreme squeeze nor wide breakout mode
- Stock positioned at lower band indicates mean-reversion potential but not yet squeezed
Volume Analysis
Critical Red Flag: Negative OBV (-8,597,807.36)
- Accumulation/distribution is heavily negative, indicating sustained selling pressure
- Volume flowing INTO bearish positions
- Suggests institutional weakness or distribution phase
Volume Rate of Change: +29.84%
- Recent volume elevated 29.84% above 20-day average
- Important context: High volume on downside typically indicates conviction in selling
- If volume elevated on down days, this confirms distributional pattern
On-Balance Volume Interpretation:
- Negative OBV with elevated recent volume suggests capitulation selling may be underway
- However, not yet at extremes that typically signal climactic bottoms
- Volume confirmation of downtrend is problematic—prices declining on increasing volume
Institutional Activity Signal:
- Volume elevation suggests active institutional participation
- Negative OBV direction indicates net institutional selling or rebalancing
- This contradicts positive news sentiment, flagging potential information gap
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
| Date | Headline | Sentiment | Impact | |------|----------|-----------|--------| | 2026-09-11 | Could Be a Great Choice (Zacks) | POSITIVE | Recent analyst endorsement | | 2026-07-13 | Overlooked Stocks for Market Rotation | POSITIVE | Technical positioning commentary | | 2025-10-29 | 12K Sq Ft Atlantic Union Bank Lease | POSITIVE | Operational expansion signal | | 2025-01-23 | Shareholder Alert: M&A Investigation | NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE | Legal/regulatory headwind | | 2024-11-22 | M&A Investigation Continues | NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE | Ongoing litigation risk | | 2024-10-24 | Sandy Spring $1.6B Acquisition Announced | POSITIVE | Major deal catalyst |
Sentiment Assessment: MIXED — 60% Positive, 40% Neutral/Negative
Positive Drivers:
- Recent analyst upgrade (September 2026) suggests fresh institutional interest
- Sandy Spring acquisition creates $39B regional banking powerhouse narrative
- Operational expansion (Virginia Beach lease) indicates growth trajectory
- Positioned for "market rotation" suggests relative strength positioning
Negative/Headwind Drivers:
- CRITICAL: Two shareholder investigation alerts (Jan-Nov 2025) concerning M&A deal terms
- Legal action suggests deal valuation or structure concerns
- Investigation continuity (November 2024 → January 2025) indicates unresolved issues
- No resolution news on shareholder litigation—ongoing overhang
Catalyst Identification
Immediate Catalysts (1-7 days):
- None identified in current news flow
Near-term Catalysts (1-4 weeks):
- Shareholder investigation resolution/settlement announcements
- Sandy Spring acquisition completion status updates
- Regulatory approval milestones (banking mergers require Fed/OCC review)
Medium-term Catalysts (1-3 months):
- Q4 2024 / Q1 2025 earnings (deal impact on guidance)
- Integration timeline announcements
- Litigation settlement outcomes
Market Narrative vs. Technical Signals: SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE ⚠️
The Conflict:
- News Narrative: Positive analyst sentiment + strategic acquisition + operational growth
- Technical Reality: Bearish momentum, negative volume accumulation, downtrend establishment
Interpretation: The shareholder investigation alerts appear to be creating a "show-me" dynamic where the market is skeptical of the acquisition's value creation despite positive public sentiment. The elevated IV (59.1%) relative to HV30 (17.0%) shows the options market pricing substantial uncertainty—a 246.6% IV premium indicates traders expect major volatility ahead.
Hypothesis: Market is pricing in deal risk (regulatory delays, shareholder vote issues, or litigation-induced restructuring) despite fundamental optimism. Technical deterioration may reflect institutional profit-taking ahead of potential deal complications.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: 0.
Generated
News
All AUB news →
Earnings History
16 of 16 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
14.08%
Avg Actual Move
1.78%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-26 | After-Close | 10.13% | 2.87% | 0.28x | Within |
| 2023-01-24 | After-Close | 25.81% | 0.66% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2023-04-25 | After-Close | 11.99% | 0.58% | 0.05x | Within |
| 2023-07-25 | After-Close | 8.42% | 5.73% | 0.68x | Within |
| 2023-10-19 | After-Close | 9.53% | 6.36% | 0.67x | Within |
| 2024-01-23 | After-Close | 10.23% | 0.11% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2024-04-23 | After-Close | 13.93% | 0.70% | 0.05x | Within |
| 2024-07-25 | Pre-Market | 11.52% | 2.01% | 0.17x | Within |
| 2024-10-21 | After-Close | 16.29% | 0.64% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2025-01-23 | After-Close | 17.09% | 0.03% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2025-04-24 | After-Close | 13.79% | 1.66% | 0.12x | Within |
| 2025-07-24 | After-Close | 20.17% | 0.03% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2025-10-23 | After-Close | 19.59% | 3.52% | 0.18x | Within |
| 2026-01-22 | Pre-Market | 11.82% | 0.80% | 0.07x | Within |
| 2026-04-21 | After-Close | 12.05% | 0.91% | 0.08x | Within |
| 2026-07-21 | Pre-Market | 12.91% | 1.86% | 0.14x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
AUB Options Activity & IV Rank
AUB IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 59.9%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $5.17
7-DTE Move: $2.73
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 0
Put Volume: 24
P/C Volume: —
Call OI: 0
Put OI: 8
P/C OI: —
Total OI: 8
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $1.52
ATM Put: $3.65
Call %: 4.0%
Put %: 9.6%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 1,052
Chain OI: 1,456
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 25th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
25%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.42
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
-0.75
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.06
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt -0.75: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
? What is this?
· 5 ATM contracts, 0k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 16 · No data
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 16 · ATM 51.3% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)49.2MediumOct 16
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$5.17Oct 16
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.7577
Alpha: 6.37%
Correlation: 0.3782
R-Squared: 14.3%
Stock Volatility: 25.5%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own AUB
3 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $7.7M | #1196 of 3138 | new | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $1.5M | #3208 of 6285 | new | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $1.0M | #1692 of 4729 | -5.1% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
AUB Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 138,791,630 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
3 filers$2.51M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $1.27M | 50.67% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $867.36K | 34.51% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Wells Fargo & Company Custodian | $372.33K | 14.81% | 2026-06-30 |
1 filers$325.79K notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $325.79K | 100.00% | 2026-06-30 |
AUB Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-10-05Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Frank Russell Ellett | Director | Award (A) | +922 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Ronald L Tillett | Director | Grant (A) | +527 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Rilla S Delorier | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Mark C Micklem | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Joel R Shephard | Director | Grant (A) | +527 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Donald R Kimble | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Paul Engola | Director | Award (A) | +922 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Mona Abutaleb Stephenson | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Linda V Schreiner | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Keith L Wampler | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Daniel J Schrider | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Frederick Blair Wimbush | Director | Grant (A) | +527 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Michelle A. O'Hara | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Nancy H Agee | Director | Award (A) | +922 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-05 | Patrick J McCann | Director | Award (A) | +527 | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
AUB Insider Holdings
28 insiders · @ $38.11
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John C Asbury | PRESIDENT AND CEO | 305,103 | $11.63M | $246.8K | 17 | 2026-03-03 |
| 2 | Daniel J Schrider | Director | 180,344 | $6.87M | $0 | 7 | 2026-10-05 |
| 3 | Joel R Shephard | Director | 109,598 | $4.18M | $0 | 12 | 2026-10-05 |
| 4 | Maria P Tedesco | EVP | 101,419 | $3.87M | $0 | 16 | 2026-03-03 |
| 5 | Robert Michael Gorman | EVP AND CFO | 93,875 | $3.58M | $0 | 17 | 2026-10-02 |
| 6 | Frank Russell Ellett | Director | 82,759 | $3.15M | $972.7K | 22 | 2026-10-05 |
| 7 | David V Ring | EVP | 53,180 | $2.03M | $0 | 16 | 2026-03-03 |
| 8 | Nancy H Agee | Director | 39,546 | $1.51M | $25.4K | 13 | 2026-10-05 |
| 9 | Douglas F. Woolley III | EVP & CCO | 38,914 | $1.48M | $0 | 8 | 2026-03-03 |
| 10 | Ronald L Tillett | Director | 37,335 | $1.42M | -$49.4K | 22 | 2026-10-05 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
AUB Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2024-05-10
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
0 filings
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-10 | Miller Clare | Officer | 2,188 | $74.7K | 2024-05-10 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
129 ETFs hold AUB
25 shown · $1.58B total exposure · 0.17% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.32% | $326.9M | $101.9B | 2026-10-15 |
| 2 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $173.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.19% | $145.2M | $75.2B | 2026-10-15 |
| 4 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.07% | $122.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 5 | DFSV Dimensional US Small Cap Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.37% | $101.0M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 6 | VBR Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.12% | $79.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.20% | $61.3M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 8 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.07% | $60.9M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 9 | IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.37% | $51.3M | $13.6B | 2026-10-15 |
| 10 | SPSM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600™ Small Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.32% | $49.9M | $15.7B | 2026-10-15 |
| 11 | IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.60% | $45.5M | $7.5B | 2026-10-15 |
| 12 | DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.13% | $42.4M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 13 | KRE State Street® SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 1.13% | $38.6M | $3.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 14 | VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $33.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 15 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.18% | $31.9M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 16 | SLYV State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Value ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.60% | $28.6M | $4.7B | 2026-10-15 |
| 17 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.11% | $25.7M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 18 | SDVY First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF | First Trust | 0.21% | $22.7M | $10.8B | 2026-10-14 |
| 19 | VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $22.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 20 | VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF | Vanguard | 0.02% | $21.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 21 | DFMC Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.27% | $20.4M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 22 | DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF | Dimensional | 0.02% | $19.9M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 23 | VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Vanguard | 0.31% | $19.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 24 | IEFA iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $18.4M | $189.9B | 2026-10-15 |
| 25 | PEY Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF | Invesco | 1.62% | $17.8M | — | 2026-10-15 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
15.88
TTM Diluted EPS
$2.40
TTM Revenue
$2.23B
TTM Net Income
$334.19M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$2.30B
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $526.52M | $119.20M | $0.84 | $127.33M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $558.84M | $109.00M | $0.81 | $114.48M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $555.19M | $89.17M | $0.63 | $156.95M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $591.89M | $16.82M | $0.12 | $1.90B |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $335.00M | $46.85M | $0.52 | $62.03M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $354.43M | $54.82M | $0.56 | $98.29M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $358.81M | $73.45M | $0.82 | $67.51M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $344.70M | $22.19M | $0.25 | $85.64M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $288.47M | $46.80M | $0.62 | $57.01M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $289.46M | $53.94M | $0.72 | $53.29M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $274.25M | $51.05M | $0.68 | $89.38M |
| Q2 '23 | 2023-06-30 | $254.44M | $52.27M | $0.70 | $72.86M |
Q1 2026 • period ending 2026-03-31 • filed 2026-05-05
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
15.88
P/B
1.05
P/S
2.37
EV/EBITDA
9.49
EV/Sales
2.51
ROE
6.6%
ROA
0.9%
Div Yield
4.00%
FCF Yield
43.53%
Debt/Equity
0.15
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$5.29B
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
7.81M
SI % of Float
5.52%
Days to Cover
5.54
Short Vol Ratio
44.5%
Free Float
141.50M
Float %
99.1%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-08-24