UMBF UMB Financial Corp

XNAS 131.10 Delayed
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Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading

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UMBF $131.10 —
Key stats
$131.10
52-Week Range
$103.38 – $153.32
YTD
+12.55%
IV Rank (30D)
70.11
Straddle Price
$7.85
Market Cap
$10.0B
Open
$132.64
Day Range
$130.63 – $134.84
Volume
669,372
Prev Close
$131.75
Fair Value
MODEL: NEUTRAL

A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.

  • DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
  • Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
  • DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
  • P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
  • Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
  • Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
  • Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
  • Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
10-yr Treasury (rf)5.21%
Beta vs SPY0.91
Cost of Equity (CAPM)9.77% (VRP-adj)
WACC9.58%
Volatility Risk Premium+16.3pp (IV − HV30)
Effective Tax Rate20.7%
Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input)-0.1%
DCF Horizon12 years explicit + fade
Free Cash Flow (TTM)$1.0B
Return on Equity (TTM)11.4%
Book / Price78.5% — banking bias active (P/B is primary)
Bank Quality Adj×1.04 (target ROE vs peer median)
Gross Margin (TTM)65.6%
FCF Margin (TTM)24.1%
Debt / Equity0.06
Quality Score4/6 — high quality (12y DCF)
Market-Implied Growth-4.5% (reverse-DCF on current price)
SMA 50$138.94 (Market Anchor value)
SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid$131.69
Bollinger Width / SMA205.0% (drives anchor stability)
Net Debt$-0.3B
Market Cap$10B
Peers used for multiples: BAC, CFG, EWBC, JPM, MTB, PNC, TFC, USB
60-Day Conviction
11%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 16, 2026
$132.62
α +1.2% rank 60%
conviction
66%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 15, 2026
$133.30
α +1.7% rank 60%
conviction
52%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 13, 2027
$130.77
α -0.3% rank 60%
conviction
11%
MethodImplied PriceWeightDetail
DCF $172.61 22%
DDM (Gordon) $18.17 0%
Peer P/E $134.78 6% median 11.5× · 8 peers
Peer EV/EBITDA n/a 0% median 16.0× · 8 peers
Peer P/B $128.78 10% median 1.2× · 8 peers
Peer P/S $131.98 3% median 2.2× · 8 peers
Market Anchor (SMA50) $138.94 43% stability 100% (BB-width)
Options Expected (B-L 30d) $131.20 16% 15 strikes · skew -0.93
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
About
Industry (SIC)
NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS (6021) · industry map
Exchange
XNAS
Market Cap
$10.0B
Employees
5,222
List Date
1975-02-18
CIK
0000101382
Next Earnings
2026-10-27 (After-Close)
EPS Forecast
$3.22 (7 est.)
Headquarters
Kansas City, MO
Homepage
https://www.umb.com

UMB Financial Corp, or UMBF, is a financial services holding company offering a suite of banking services and asset servicing to its customers in the United States and around the world. Its client base includes commercial, institutional, and personal customers. Along with its subsidiaries, the company operates in the following business segments: Commercial Banking, Institutional Banking, and Personal Banking. A majority of its revenue is generated from the Commercial Banking segment, which serves the commercial banking and treasury management needs of small to middle-market businesses through …

Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.

Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.

Chart
Seasonality
Month'21'22'23'24'25'26Avg
Jan3.39%-8.36%9.24%-1.66%5.47%9.15%2.87%
Feb15.04%-0.02%0.51%-2.19%-2.57%-9.50%0.21%
Mar5.17%0.75%-35.83%7.93%-6.96%-4.13%-5.51%
Apr4.86%-7.61%11.05%-5.79%-5.93%10.05%1.11%
May-0.79%1.66%-6.02%3.30%5.46%1.56%0.86%
Jun-4.79%-5.86%3.64%2.52%2.97%11.40%1.65%
Jul-0.21%3.87%14.65%23.81%1.71%-0.16%7.28%
Aug-0.43%-1.43%-9.02%5.95%12.46%-3.68%0.64%
Sep6.16%-6.16%-3.95%1.20%-2.62%-5.76%-1.86%
Oct-0.27%-4.08%4.01%8.48%-9.65%1.01%*-0.08%
Nov-1.04%3.36%12.87%15.89%3.51%--6.92%
Dec6.22%-1.45%11.92%-9.51%2.30%--1.90%
Total37.00%-23.38%0.32%56.42%4.08%7.94%13.73%
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators

SMA 20: $131.51
SMA 50: $138.66
SMA 200: $130.59
Current: $131.10
EMA 12: $130.96
EMA 26: $133.14
MACD: -2.1784 | Signal: 0.4591
BEARISH
ADX (14): 33.29
TREND
+DI: 27.32
−DI: 29.26

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14): 43.38
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 49.33
Stoch %D: 43.33
Williams %R: -40.48

Volume & Volatility

BB Upper: $135.63
BB Lower: $127.40
NEUTRAL
OBV: -2,478,990
Vol SMA 20: 668,511
Vol ROC: 1.68%
ATR: $2.96
True Range: $4.21
HV 20: 17.2%
HV 30: 16.7%
HV 60: 19.8%

Data Summary

Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis

UMB FINANCIAL CORPORATION (UMBF) - COMPREHENSIVE STOCK ANALYSIS


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Assessment: BEARISH | Confidence Level: 7/10

Investment Thesis: UMB Financial is experiencing a significant technical deterioration despite positive sentiment in recent news headlines. The stock is trading below its 20, 50-day moving averages with strong downward momentum (ADX 38.43, -DI 36.35 vs +DI 16.11), while RSI at 32.90 and stochastic indicators suggest potential oversold conditions. However, the positive news sentiment around value positioning and capital returns creates a near-term rebound risk that could provide entry opportunities for contrarian positions.

Key Drivers:

  • Primary Risk: Strong downtrend established with 38.43 ADX reading indicating a robust bearish regime
  • Primary Opportunity: Oversold technical readings (stochastic 18.42) combined with positive news sentiment create potential mean-reversion setup
  • Recent News Sentiment: Moderately positive (3 of 5 recent headlines bullish), but sentiment appears disconnected from current price action

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Trend Direction

Short-term (1-4 weeks): BEARISH

  • Price at $130.94 is trading below all major moving averages (SMA20: $135.78, SMA50: $141.68, EMA12: $133.30)
  • Negative slope on all exponential moving averages indicates downward momentum
  • Stock has declined significantly from its 50-day MA ($141.68), approximately -7.6% below

Medium-term (1-3 months): BEARISH

  • Price is trading within range but below 50-day and 20-day moving averages
  • Only above 200-day SMA ($130.02) by a narrow margin of +0.7%, suggesting weakness
  • Medium-term structure is deteriorating

Long-term (3-12 months): NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH

  • Price remains above 200-day SMA ($130.02), indicating longer-term uptrend foundation intact
  • However, the distance from 50-day MA suggests intermediate-term loss of momentum

Support/Resistance Levels

Resistance Levels (bullish targets if breakout occurs):

  1. $135.78 (SMA20) — Primary near-term resistance
  2. $141.68 (SMA50) — Significant intermediate resistance; major trend inflection point
  3. $143.71 (Bollinger Bands upper) — Secondary resistance; breakout level

Support Levels (downside protection):

  1. $130.02 (SMA200) — Critical long-term support; currently only $0.92 below current price
  2. $127.84 (Bollinger Bands lower) — Technical support; -2.3% downside
  3. $125.00 (psychological level) — Extended support

Critical Level: The 200-day SMA at $130.02 is essentially the last major technical floor. A break below this would signal a shift to bearish long-term structure.

Momentum Signals

RSI (14): 32.90 — Neutral with Oversold Bias

  • Reading is not yet in oversold territory (<30) but approaching it
  • Positioned in neutral zone (30-70) but closer to oversold threshold
  • Suggests potential for continued downside before reversal, OR imminent reversal if selling exhaustion occurs
  • Signal: RSI weakness supports the bearish trend but doesn't yet confirm capitulation

MACD: -3.13 / Signal: -0.34 / Histogram: -2.80 — BEARISH

  • MACD is significantly below the signal line (MACD < Signal), confirming bearish momentum
  • Negative histogram (-2.80) shows downward momentum is strengthening
  • No bullish crossover signal visible; momentum remains firmly bearish
  • Signal: This is the clearest bearish signal in the momentum suite

Bollinger Bands: Neutral

  • Price at $130.94 is positioned between middle ($135.78) and lower band ($127.84)
  • Band width of 11.70 indicates moderate volatility; bands are not in squeeze (would signal expansion)
  • Position suggests mean reversion potential upward toward middle band (approximately $5 upside)
  • Not yet at lower band (oversold extreme), but approaching region of technical value

Momentum Composite Signal: BEARISH — MACD divergence and price below all key MAs overwhelm the approaching oversold RSI reading. However, the oversold RSI combined with Bollinger Band positioning creates tactical rebound risk.

Volume Analysis

Volume Trend: NEGATIVE SIGNAL

  • Volume Rate of Change: -60.30% — Dramatic decline in trading activity
  • Volume SMA 20: 701,354.55 shares
  • Interpretation: The extreme -60.30% decline in volume suggests the downtrend may be losing momentum (fewer sellers), which could be a positive sign for reversal. However, declining volume during a downtrend often leads to capitulation moves rather than reversal.

On-Balance Volume (OBV): 420,601.34

  • OBV is in negative territory relative to price movement
  • Suggests selling pressure has exceeded buying pressure during the recent decline
  • Interpretation: Institutional and retail selling has driven the recent weakness

Institutional Interest Signal: MODERATE

  • Volume decline could indicate reduced institutional participation
  • Possible consolidation phase before next directional move
  • Red Flag: The 60% volume collapse is concerning and warrants monitoring for capitulation or pivot

NEWS & SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

Recent Headlines Summary (Last 10 Articles)

| Date | Headline | Sentiment | Relevance | |------|----------|-----------|-----------| | 2026-10-02 | Commerce Bancshares Capital Returns vs Growth | POSITIVE | Strategic capital allocation | | 2026-10-02 | Top Value Stock for Long-Term | POSITIVE | Valuation thesis | | 2026-08-31 | Insider Sells 2,000 Shares (Shankar Ram) | POSITIVE | Insider selling (context dependent) | | 2026-08-27 | Down 3.3% Since Last Earnings | NEUTRAL | Performance commentary | | 2025-07-31 | Q2 Revenue Up 77% | POSITIVE | Strong revenue growth | | 2024-07-03 | Chairman/CEO Stock Sale ($286k) | NEUTRAL | Insider selling/liquidity |

Sentiment Assessment

Aggregate Sentiment: POSITIVE (60% positive, 40% neutral)

  • 3 of 5 recent headlines carry positive sentiment
  • Recent news focuses on valuation opportunity and capital management
  • Key Theme: Market narrative positioning UMBF as undervalued with strong fundamentals (77% revenue growth)

Critical Sentiment-Technical Disconnect

⚠️ MAJOR CONFLICT ALERT:

  • News Sentiment: Positive (value opportunity, growth narrative)
  • Technical Signals: Strongly bearish (ADX 38.43, -DI 36.35, MACD negative, price below all MAs)
  • Interpretation: This disconnect suggests either:
    1. Market has not yet reflected positive news in price action
    2. Technical breakdown overshadows positive fundamentals (supply/demand imbalance)
    3. Insider selling activity (3 recent insider sales) contradicts positive public messaging

Catalyst Identification

Immediate Catalysts (1-7 days):

  • None identified from current news flow
  • Volume collapse suggests potential for volatility spike on any news catalyst

Near-term Catalysts (1-4 weeks):

  • Earnings release (date not provided in data) — critical for validating 77% revenue growth narrative
  • Potential for insider buying if management believes stock undervalued at current levels
  • Risk: If earnings disappoint, could confirm bearish technical breakdown

Medium-term Catalysts (1-3 months):

  • Capital return program implementation (mentioned in recent news)
  • Regulatory/banking sector developments affecting financial stocks

Market Narrative Assessment

Narrative: "UMBF is an undervalued financial services company with strong revenue growth, trading below intrinsic value with attractive capital return prospects."

Technical Reality: Stock is in established downtrend with weakening momentum, suggesting market is pricing in concerns not reflected in recent positive headlines.

Resolution: This narrative vs. reality conflict will likely resolve at next earnings report or through further price deterioration that triggers insider buying.

Generated
Earnings History
15 of 17 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
8.55%
Avg Actual Move
2.66%
Each row pairs the pre-earnings straddle-implied expected move with the realized close-to-close move. Sorted oldest first.
Earnings Date Timing Expected Move Actual Move Ratio Outcome
2021-04-27 After-Close 17.01% 0.61% 0.04x Within
2021-10-26 After-Close 6.07% 7.40% 1.22x Exceeded
2022-01-25 After-Close 4.99% 5.18% 1.04x Exceeded
2023-03-13 After-Close 27.66% 1.46% 0.05x Within
2023-07-25 After-Close 6.90% 5.32% 0.77x Within
2023-10-24 After-Close 9.67% 1.55% 0.16x Within
2024-01-30 After-Close 6.74% 1.23% 0.18x Within
2024-04-29 After-Close 7.72% 2.46% 0.32x Within
2024-07-30 After-Close 6.36% 3.00% 0.47x Within
2024-10-29 After-Close 7.69% 4.20% 0.55x Within
2025-01-28 After-Close 6.50% 0.77% 0.12x Within
2025-04-29 After-Close 7.31% 3.32% 0.45x Within
2025-07-29 After-Close 5.93% 1.47% 0.25x Within
2025-10-28 After-Close 6.88% 3.21% 0.47x Within
2026-01-27 After-Close 5.81% 0.16% 0.03x Within
2026-04-28 After-Close 6.34% 0.90% 0.14x Within
2026-07-28 After-Close 5.83% 2.98% 0.51x Within

Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →

UMBF Options Activity & IV Rank

UMBF IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →

Volatility Metrics

Current IV: 24.0%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $7.85
7-DTE Move: $4.90
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)

Options Flow

Call Volume: 0
Put Volume: 23
P/C Volume: —
Call OI: 0
Put OI: 34
P/C OI: —
Total OI: 34

ATM Options Pricing

ATM Call: $5.10
ATM Put: $2.75
Call %: 3.9%
Put %: 2.1%

Chain Summary

Chain Volume: 218
Chain OI: 1,399
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ

Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 36th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.

Gamma percentile
36%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.76
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.70
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.76
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.70: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.76: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.

Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.

Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.

Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.

This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.

· 3 ATM contracts, 0k total OI
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

  • Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
  • Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
  • Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
  • Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

  • Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
  • Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
  • Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
  • Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

  • High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
  • Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
  • Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM 23.9% / Wing —

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

Volatility Smile

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.

IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)70.1MediumOct 16
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$7.85Oct 16
Beta Analysis

Risk Metrics

Beta: 0.6875
Alpha: 12.45%
Correlation: 0.3583
R-Squared: 12.8%
Stock Volatility: 24.4%
Market Volatility: 12.7%

Analysis Details

Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own UMBF
3 of 37 tracked investors
InvestorValueShare of their portfolioRankQ/Q sharesSource
Citadel Hedge fund
Ken Griffin
$134.7M
0.08%
#310 of 6285-11.7%13F
Millennium Management Hedge fund
Izzy Englander
$10.8M
0.01%
#1522 of 3716-52.5%13F
Rockefeller Capital Management Family office
Rockefeller family
$480K
0.00%
#2110 of 4729-3.2%13F

Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions

UMBF Institutional Ownership (13F)

Latest filings — 2026-09-30
Diluted shares outstanding: 75,669,623 (as of 2026-03-31)

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

  • Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
  • Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
  • % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
  • Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

499 filers80,741,130 shares$11.27B value106.70% of float
# Filer Shares Value % of Total % of Float Period
1 BlackRock, Inc. Custodian 10,215,651 $1.46B 12.94% 13.50% 2026-06-30
2 Vanguard Group Inc Custodian 7,684,774 $884.06M 7.85% 10.16% 2025-12-31
3 UMB Bank, n.a. 4,674,963 $667.40M 5.92% 6.18% 2026-06-30
4 Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC 4,213,123 $601.47M 5.34% 5.57% 2026-06-30
5 State Street Corp 4,133,285 $591.79M 5.25% 5.46% 2026-06-30
6 Vanguard Capital Management LLC 3,130,338 $446.89M 3.97% 4.14% 2026-06-30
7 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Custodian 3,030,849 $432.68M 3.84% 4.01% 2026-06-30
8 FMR LLC Custodian 2,671,666 $381.41M 3.38% 3.53% 2026-06-30
9 Geode Capital Management, LLC Custodian 2,064,907 $294.83M 2.62% 2.73% 2026-06-30
10 Wellington Management Group LLP Custodian 1,687,247 $240.87M 2.14% 2.23% 2026-06-30
11 Neuberger Berman Group LLC 1,562,240 $223.03M 1.98% 2.06% 2026-06-30
12 EARNEST PARTNERS LLC 1,242,430 $177.37M 1.57% 1.64% 2026-06-30
13 Goldman Sachs Group Inc Custodian 1,241,789 $177.28M 1.57% 1.64% 2026-06-30
14 Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC 1,145,958 $166.91M 1.48% 1.51% 2026-06-30
15 American Century Companies, Inc. 1,045,921 $149.32M 1.33% 1.38% 2026-06-30
16 AllianceBernstein L.P. 1,300,605 $146.70M 1.30% 1.72% 2026-06-30
17 Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. 964,626 $137.71M 1.22% 1.27% 2026-06-30
18 Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian 943,290 $134.66M 1.20% 1.25% 2026-06-30
19 Morgan Stanley Custodian 939,019 $134.05M 1.19% 1.24% 2026-06-30
20 Northern Trust Corp Custodian 926,889 $132.32M 1.17% 1.22% 2026-06-30
21 First Trust Advisors LP 914,990 $130.62M 1.16% 1.21% 2026-06-30
22 Bank of America Corp Custodian 904,683 $129.15M 1.15% 1.20% 2026-06-30
23 Victory Capital Management Inc. 900,418 $128.54M 1.14% 1.19% 2026-06-30
24 Nuveen, LLC Custodian 763,660 $109.02M 0.97% 1.01% 2026-06-30
25 Norges Bank 705,322 $100.69M 0.89% 0.93% 2026-06-30
3 filers$3.23M notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian $1.53M 47.35% 2026-06-30
2 Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian $885.11K 27.43% 2026-06-30
3 Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian $813.73K 25.22% 2026-06-30
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period

UMBF Insider Trading (Form 4)

Latest: 2026-09-03
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
Filed Reporter Role Action Shares Avg Price Net $ Link
2026-09-03 Greg M Graves Director Buy (P) +573 $139.60 $80.0K EDGAR
2026-09-03 Tamara Peterman Director Buy (P) +394 $139.60 $55.0K EDGAR
2026-08-18 Thomas S Terry Chief Credit Officer Sell (S) −5,713 $151.77 -$867.1K EDGAR
2026-08-18 Ram Shankar Chief Financial Officer Sell (S) −2,000 $151.61 -$303.2K EDGAR
2026-08-07 Susan G Murphy Director Sell (S) −1,377 $145.55 -$200.4K EDGAR
2026-08-07 Susan G Murphy Director Sell (S) −1,377 $145.55 -$200.4K EDGAR
2026-08-06 David Carl Odgers Chief Accounting Officer Sell (S) −145 $147.30 -$21.4K EDGAR
2026-08-06 J Mariner Kemper Chairman and CEO Sell (S) −15,062 $148.55 -$2.24M EDGAR
2026-08-06 J Mariner Kemper Chairman and CEO Sell (S) −15,062 $148.55 -$2.24M EDGAR
2026-08-06 David Carl Odgers Chief Accounting Officer Sell (S) −145 $147.30 -$21.4K EDGAR
2026-08-04 Phillip James Mason President, Inst. Banking Sell (S) −800 $147.00 -$117.6K EDGAR
2026-08-04 Uma Wilson Executive Vice President Sell (S) −4,145 $148.00 -$613.5K EDGAR
2026-08-04 J Mariner Kemper Chairman and CEO Mixed +5,561 $147.27 -$618.5K EDGAR
2026-08-04 Nikki Farentino Newton President, Private Wealth Mgmt Sell (S) −2,000 $148.60 -$297.2K EDGAR
2026-07-31 Kevin Charles Gallagher Director Sell (S) −360 $145.13 -$52.2K EDGAR
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.

UMBF Insider Holdings

17 insiders · @ $131.10
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
# Insider Role Shares Disclosed Exposure Lifetime OM Net Filings Last Filed
1 J Mariner Kemper Chairman and CEO 720,739 $94.49M -$88.75M 311 2026-08-06
2 James D Rine President 44,750 $5.87M -$3.60M 42 2025-01-29
3 Greg M Graves Director 40,463 $5.30M $1.25M 109 2026-09-03
4 Thomas S Terry Chief Credit Officer 35,777 $4.69M -$3.93M 60 2026-08-18
5 Ram Shankar Chief Financial Officer 31,994 $4.19M -$703.1K 32 2026-08-18
6 Shannon Andresen Johnson Chief Administrative Officer 23,323 $3.06M -$951.6K 52 2025-01-29
7 Uma Wilson Executive Vice President 20,564 $2.70M -$835.1K 19 2026-08-04
8 Kevin Charles Gallagher Director 19,992 $2.62M $209.3K 22 2026-07-31
9 Nikki Farentino Newton President, Private Wealth Mgmt 12,056 $1.58M -$730.8K 18 2026-08-04
10 Tamara Peterman Director 10,680 $1.40M $353.5K 23 2026-09-03
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.

UMBF Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)

Latest: 2026-09-30
Last 30d: 3 filings · $569K notice value  ·  Last 90d: 23 filings · $7.6M notice value · 14 unique filers · 57% under 10b5-1 plans

What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.

How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.

10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.

"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.

Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.

Top 90-day filers: R C Kemper Marital Trust (1, $2.2M) · R C Kemper Jr Charitable Trust & Foundation (4, $1.3M) · Thomas Terry (1, $867K) · Uma Wilson (1, $613K) · R C Kemper Charitable Trust & Foundation (4, $613K)
Filed Filer Role Shares Notice Value Planned Sale Broker Plan Link
2026-09-30 R C Kemper Jr Charitable Trust & Foundation Affiliate 2,550 $331.5K 2026-10-01 Capital Institutional Services 10b5-1 EDGAR
2026-09-30 R C Kemper Charitable Trust & Foundation Affiliate 1,250 $162.5K 2026-10-01 Capital Institutional Services 10b5-1 EDGAR
2026-09-30 Bebe & Crosby Kemper Foundation for the Arts Affiliate 576 $74.9K 2026-10-01 Capital Institutional Services 10b5-1 EDGAR
2026-09-01 R C Kemper Jr Charitable Trust & Foundation Affiliate 2,550 $361.2K 2026-09-01 Capital Institutional Services 10b5-1 EDGAR
2026-09-01 R C Kemper Charitable Trust & Foundation Affiliate 1,250 $177.0K 2026-09-01 Capital Institutional Services 10b5-1 EDGAR
2026-09-01 Bebe & Crosby Kemper Foundation for the Arts Affiliate 576 $81.6K 2026-09-01 Capital Institutional Services 10b5-1 EDGAR
2026-08-17 Thomas Terry Officer 5,713 $867.0K 2026-08-17 Merrill — EDGAR
2026-08-17 Ram Shankar officer 2,000 $303.2K 2026-08-17 Merrill — EDGAR
2026-08-06 SUSAN G MURPHY Director 1,377 $200.4K 2026-08-06 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … — EDGAR
2026-08-05 David Odgers Officer 145 $21.4K 2026-08-05 Merrill — EDGAR
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
Recent SEC Filings
Latest: 2026-04-30
Current reports — material events the company must disclose within 4 business days (earnings releases, M&A, executive changes, etc.).
Filing Date Accession Link
2026-04-30 0001193125-26-197753 EDGAR
2026-04-28 0001193125-26-186932 EDGAR
2026-02-10 0001193125-26-044638 EDGAR
2026-01-27 0001193125-26-024400 EDGAR
2025-10-28 0001193125-25-253477 EDGAR
2025-08-27 0001193125-25-189680 EDGAR
2025-07-29 0000950170-25-099619 EDGAR
2025-07-15 0001193125-25-159412 EDGAR
2025-06-12 0001193125-25-139563 EDGAR
2025-06-12 0001193125-25-139927 EDGAR
Annual report — audited financial statements, MD&A, risk factors. Filed 60–90 days after fiscal year-end.
Filing Date Accession Link
2026-02-26 0001193125-26-076496 EDGAR
2025-02-27 0000950170-25-028420 EDGAR
2024-02-22 0000950170-24-018456 EDGAR
2023-02-23 0001564590-23-002256 EDGAR
2022-02-24 0001564590-22-006546 EDGAR
Quarterly report — unaudited financials and MD&A. Filed 40–45 days after each of the first three fiscal quarters.
Filing Date Accession Link
2026-04-30 0001193125-26-194310 EDGAR
2025-10-30 0001193125-25-257610 EDGAR
2025-07-31 0000950170-25-100572 EDGAR
2025-05-02 0000950170-25-062287 EDGAR
2024-10-31 0000950170-24-119267 EDGAR
2024-08-01 0000950170-24-088982 EDGAR
2024-05-07 0000950170-24-053990 EDGAR
2023-10-26 0000950170-23-055378 EDGAR
2023-07-27 0000950170-23-034976 EDGAR
2023-04-27 0001564590-23-006456 EDGAR
ETF Holders
142 ETFs hold UMBF
25 shown · $2.34B total exposure · 0.32% AUM-weighted avg weight
# ETF Provider Weight $ Exposure ETF AUM As Of
1 IJH iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.28% $333.2M $122.4B 2026-10-14
2 VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF Vanguard 0.01% $283.3M — 2026-09-30
3 IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.33% $256.5M $78.9B 2026-10-14
4 VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF Vanguard 0.11% $200.0M — 2026-09-30
5 VBR Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF Vanguard 0.20% $130.2M — 2026-09-30
6 VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF Vanguard 0.11% $105.5M — 2026-09-30
7 DFSV Dimensional US Small Cap Value ETF Dimensional 0.36% $96.3M — 2026-10-14
8 DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF Dimensional 0.30% $91.6M — 2026-10-14
9 SDY State Street® SPDR® S&P® Dividend ETF SPDR (State Street) 0.40% $85.0M $21.1B 2026-10-14
10 IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.60% $81.0M $13.7B 2026-10-14
11 DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF Dimensional 0.23% $78.5M — 2026-10-14
12 SDVY First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF First Trust 0.71% $76.7M $10.8B 2026-10-14
13 MDY State Street® SPDR® S&P MIDCAP 400® ETF Trust SPDR (State Street) 0.27% $69.9M $25.6B 2026-10-14
14 VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF Vanguard 0.32% $55.8M — 2026-09-30
15 VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF Vanguard 0.04% $53.1M — 2026-09-30
16 SPMD State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 400™ Mid Cap ETF SPDR (State Street) 0.28% $49.9M $18.1B 2026-10-14
17 IJJ iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.57% $47.5M $8.5B 2026-10-14
18 SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF Nport 0.20% $45.1M — 2026-05-31
19 VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Vanguard 0.04% $38.1M — 2026-09-30
20 KRE State Street® SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF SPDR (State Street) 1.08% $37.8M $3.5B 2026-10-14
21 DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF Dimensional 0.04% $37.7M — 2026-10-14
22 REGL ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF ProShares 1.51% $25.4M — 2026-10-15
23 SCHM Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF Nport 0.17% $25.3M — 2026-05-31
24 AVLV Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF Avantis 0.09% $19.7M $22.0B 2026-10-14
25 PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF iShares (BlackRock) 0.15% $18.3M $12.1B 2026-10-14
Fundamentals

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics
  • Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
  • Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
  • Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
  • Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
  • Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
  • YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
  • Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
  • Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.

Trailing P/E
11.61
TTM Diluted EPS
$11.29
TTM Revenue
$4.31B
TTM Net Income
$860.92M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$1.02B
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
QuarterPeriod EndRevenueNet IncomeDiluted EPSOp. Cash Flow
Q1 '262026-03-31$1.07B$255.62M$3.35$361.27M
Q4 '252025-12-31$1.09B$209.54M$2.76$106.08M
Q3 '252025-09-30$1.08B$180.37M$2.36$272.21M
Q2 '252025-06-30$1.07B$215.38M$2.82$285.39M
Q1 '252025-03-31$904.17M$79.32M$1.21$363.02M
Q4 '242024-12-31$720.18M$120.00M$2.43$-66.87M
Q3 '242024-09-30$716.44M$109.64M$2.23$123.65M
Q2 '242024-06-30$683.20M$101.34M$2.07$112.37M
Q1 '242024-03-31$679.31M$110.26M$2.25$56.14M
Q4 '232023-12-31$636.86M$70.92M$1.45$84.98M
Q3 '232023-09-30$605.29M$96.55M$1.98$232.22M
Q2 '232023-06-30$599.46M$90.11M$1.85$153.71M
Q1 2026 • period ending 2026-03-31 • filed 2026-04-30
Valuation

Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.

Price Multiples
  • P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
  • P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
  • P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
  • EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
  • EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
  • ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
  • ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
  • Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
  • FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
  • Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
  • Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
  • Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
  • Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
  • Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
11.61
P/B
1.27
P/S
2.30
EV/EBITDA
8.68
EV/Sales
2.24
ROE
11.0%
ROA
1.2%
Div Yield
1.51%
FCF Yield
10.33%
Debt/Equity
0.06
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$9.92B
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float

Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.

Metric definitions
  • Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
  • SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
  • Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
  • Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
  • Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
  • Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
  • SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
  • 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
  • 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
  • >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
  • Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
  • Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
  • A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.

Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.

Short Interest
3.89M
SI % of Float
5.41%
Days to Cover
4.93
Short Vol Ratio
70.5%
Free Float
71.90M
Float %
94.7%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-08-24