Saul Centers, Inc.(BFS)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
BFS
$35.27
—
Snapshot
$35.27
- 52-Week Range
- $29.16 – $38.42
- YTD
- +11.76%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 24.11
- Straddle Price
- $4.90
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.00
- Market Cap
- $0.9B
Fair Value
MODEL: LONG
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.60% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.10% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 7.01% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +59.2pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +10.7% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.0B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 8.5% |
| Book / Price | 54.5% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 81.4% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 7.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 2.54 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +27.4% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $35.88 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $36.66 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 20.3% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $1.2B |
| Market Cap | $1B |
Peers used for multiples: AAT, APLE, DEA, GLPI, GNL, HIW
(filtered from 8 ETF-co-members; sector bias active)
Model Conviction
86%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Aug 21, 2026
$35.62
α +1.0%
rank 41%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Sep 21, 2026
$37.98
α +7.7%
rank 62%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Oct 20, 2026
$40.11
α +13.7%
rank 81%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $-17.63 | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $48.59 | 27% | |
| Peer P/E | $47.09 | 10% | median 40.0× · 5 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $61.06 | 10% | median 13.5× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/B | $25.95 | 10% | median 1.3× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/S | $50.73 | 10% | median 3.9× · 6 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $35.88 | 33% | stability 49% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-07-23 · updated
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (6798)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $0.9B
Saul Centers Inc is a self-managed real estate investment trust which invests in, operates and develops retail and commercial properties. The company's portfolio includes community and neighbourhood shopping centres, office properties, and mixed-use properties. Properties are located in the Washington, D.C. and Batlimore metropolitan areas. Saul Centers operates through two business segments: Shopping Centers segment, which contribute the maximum portion of total revenue; and mixed-use properties.Mixed-Use Properties segment include office, retail and multi-family residential use.
Summary
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composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | -0.99% | 6 |
| Feb | +1.34% | 6 |
| Mar | +1.92% | 6 |
| Apr | -2.86% | 6 |
| May | -0.42% | 6 |
| Jun | +2.67% | 6 |
| Jul | +1.98% | 6 |
| Aug | -2.49% | 5 |
| Sep | -5.90% | 5 |
| Oct | -0.29% | 5 |
| Nov | +3.90% | 5 |
| Dec | +0.45% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $36.57
SMA 50: $35.89
SMA 200: $33.20
Current: $35.27
EMA 12: $36.14
EMA 26: $36.24
MACD: -0.0975 | Signal: -0.1605
BULLISH
ADX (14): 12.18
RANGE
+DI: 22.59
−DI: 24.87
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 40.41
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 19.28
Stoch %D: 31.42
Williams %R: -100.00
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $38.04
BB Lower: $35.09
NEUTRAL
OBV: -680,766
Vol SMA 20: 107,924
Vol ROC: 35.45%
ATR: $0.76
True Range: $0.53
HV 20: 21.1%
HV 30: 23.3%
HV 60: 22.8%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-07-25T00:00:00 – 2026-07-23T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
7 of 7 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-01 | Pre-Market | 11.38% | 0.18% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2024-11-07 | After-Close | 10.61% | 2.05% | 0.19x | Within |
| 2025-02-28 | Pre-Market | 15.06% | 1.63% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2025-05-08 | After-Close | 38.19% | 0.41% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2025-08-07 | After-Close | 37.67% | 0.06% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2025-11-06 | Pre-Market | 14.86% | 0.37% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2026-02-27 | Pre-Market | 6.94% | 0.82% | 0.12x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 24.11
- IV Rank (7D)
- 24.11
- Avg IV
- 74.4%
- Straddle (30D)
- $4.90
- Straddle (7D)
- $4.90
- P/C Volume
- 0.00
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
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—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.04
- Correlation (SPY)
- 2.4%
- R²
- 0.00
- Ann. Volatility
- 19.8%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.7%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-06-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 24,264,000 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
1 filers$16.29K notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $16.29K | 100.00% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-07-02
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | GEORGE PATRICK JR CLANCY | Director | Award (A) | — | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-01 | David Todd Pearson | President & COO | Buy (P) | +2,600 | $34.74 | $90.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Bettina T. Guevara | Exec. VP /Chf Legal & Adm Off | Mixed | −134 | $33.00 | -$4.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Judith K. Garland | SVP, Office and Retail | Mixed | −52 | $33.00 | -$1.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Willoughby B. Laycock | SVP-Res. Design/Mrkt Research | Mixed | −25 | $33.00 | -$825 | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Donald A Hachey | SVP-Chief Construction Officer | Mixed | −62 | $33.00 | -$2.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | David Todd Pearson | President & COO | Mixed | −864 | $33.00 | -$28.5K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Carlos Lawrence Heard | Senior Vice President & CFO | Mixed | −91 | $33.00 | -$3.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | B FRANCIS II SAUL | Chairman & CEO | Award (A) | +572 | $33.00 | $18.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Lori Godby | Senior Vice Pres.-Residential | Tax (F) | −34 | $33.00 | -$1.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Patricia E. Saul | Vice Chair | Mixed | −115 | $33.00 | -$3.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | John Collich | Sr. VP, Chief Acq. & Dev. Off. | Mixed | −68 | $33.00 | -$2.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Zachary Maxwell Friedlis | Sr. VP-Director of Leasing | Mixed | −65 | $33.00 | -$2.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | Joel Albert Friedman | Exec VP, CAO & Treasurer | Mixed | −90 | $33.00 | -$3.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-12 | Zachary Maxwell Friedlis | Sr. VP-Director of Leasing | Mixed | +1,416 | $35.19 | -$3.0K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
39 insiders · @ $35.27
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B FRANCIS II SAUL | Chairman & CEO | 271,281 | $9.57M | $4.84M | 204 | 2026-05-19 |
| 2 | David Todd Pearson | President & COO | 81,777 | $2.88M | $434.7K | 15 | 2026-06-01 |
| 3 | PHILIP D CARACI | Director | 58,018 | $2.05M | -$1.61M | 127 | 2026-05-11 |
| 4 | John Collich | Sr. VP, Chief Acq. & Dev. Off. | 55,364 | $1.95M | -$5.08M | 60 | 2026-05-19 |
| 5 | PHILIP C JR JACKSON | Director | 49,100 | $1.73M | -$1.33M | 57 | 2018-04-04 |
| 6 | B FRANCIS III SAUL | President | 37,986 | $1.34M | -$2.70M | 31 | 2012-07-05 |
| 7 | PAUL X KELLEY | Director | 36,378 | $1.28M | $0 | 35 | 2013-07-03 |
| 8 | Patricia E. Saul | Vice Chair | 23,584 | $831.8K | $0 | 9 | 2026-05-19 |
| 9 | GEORGE PATRICK JR CLANCY | Director | 22,605 | $797.3K | -$273.3K | 83 | 2026-07-02 |
| 10 | PATRICK F NOONAN | Director | 16,482 | $581.3K | -$1.72M | 62 | 2018-05-14 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 33.0 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.9 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.3B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.0B |
| TTM EPS | $1.07 |
| ROE | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 11.33% |
| Debt/Equity | 5.29 |