Fortuna Mining Corp.(FSM)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $7.69 – $13.85
- YTD
- +22.69%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 27.28
- Straddle Price
- $1.62
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.40
- Market Cap
- $3.4B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.96% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.08 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.88% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.39% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +28.5pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.0B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -5.0% |
| Book / Price | 114.4% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Debt / Equity | 0.08 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $10.72 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $12.02 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 98.3% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.4B |
| Market Cap | $2B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 29.0× · 3 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 17.0× · 3 peers |
| Peer P/B | $61.85 | 23% | median 4.7× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 13.2× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $10.72 | 77% | stability 66% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $11.43 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew -0.05 |
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $3.4B
Fortuna Mining Corp is a Canadian-based precious metals mining company with mines in the Latin America and West Africa regions producing gold and silver. It operate mines in Argentina, Burkina Faso, Cote d'voire, Mexico, and Peru. The company's segment consists of Mansfield, Sango, Bateas, Corporate. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Sango segment which operates the Seguela gold mine. Geographically, the company generates the majority of its revenue from Cote d' Ivoire location.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | -0.34% | 6 |
| Feb | +1.09% | 6 |
| Mar | +8.72% | 6 |
| Apr | -1.09% | 6 |
| May | +3.98% | 6 |
| Jun | -10.52% | 6 |
| Jul | -1.80% | 6 |
| Aug | +0.19% | 6 |
| Sep | +3.34% | 6 |
| Oct | +8.01% | 5 |
| Nov | +12.39% | 5 |
| Dec | +0.10% | 5 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: Bullish (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key Drivers: Positive earnings expectations, capacity expansion at Séguéla Gold Mine, and advancing growth initiatives.
Primary Risks: High volatility, beta >1.5, and potential regulatory issues.
Investment Thesis: FSM is poised for a near-term uptrend driven by positive fundamental developments, which could lead to a medium-term rally. However, high volatility and regulatory risks should be closely monitored.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: The recent news headlines have been overwhelmingly positive, highlighting the company's growth initiatives and expanding capacity. This has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the options market.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bullish
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Bullish
- Long-term (3-12 months): Neutral
Support/Resistance Levels: $10.72 (lower Bollinger Band), $11.96 (SMA 20), and $13.20 (upper Bollinger Band) are key levels to monitor.
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (57.36)
- MACD signal: Bullish (0.70 histogram above the signal line)
- Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze (price is near the upper band)
Volume Analysis: The volume rate of change (-55.25%) indicates a significant decrease in trading activity, which could be a bearish sign.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: The recent news has been extremely positive, highlighting FSM's growth initiatives and capacity expansion.
Sentiment Assessment: Positive (8/10)
Catalyst Identification: Upcoming earnings release on August 5, 2026, could be a key catalyst.
Market Narrative: The positive news sentiment aligns with the bullish technical signals, creating an upward momentum.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: High risk (beta >1.5) due to the stock's high volatility and potential for large price swings.
Volatility Regime: High volatility (historical HV20 53.5%, HV30 55.9%) with an IV premium vs HV30 of 141.5% (positive).
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank: Medium
- Put/call ratios: Neutral (0.72)
- Unusual activity: None noted
Downside Protection: Support levels at $10.72 and $11.96 should be monitored for potential stops.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: FSM's sector, gold mining, has been performing relatively well, with a beta of 0.55 vs SPY.
Institutional Activity: The options market suggests institutional interest, with 53 calls and 38 puts traded yesterday.
Correlation Analysis: FSM has a moderate correlation (R-squared = 0.45) with the broader market, indicating some independence from the overall trend.
Relative Valuation: FSM is trading within its historical range, suggesting fair value.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support at $10.72 and $11.96
- Resistance at $13.20 (upper Bollinger Band)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Break above the upper Bollinger Band could trigger a medium-term rally
- Break below the lower Bollinger Band could signal a bearish reversal
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Earnings release on August 5, 2026, and potential regulatory issues should be monitored.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels at $10.72 and $11.96, with position sizing considerations based on the stock's high volatility.
- IV Rank (30D)
- 27.28
- IV Rank (7D)
- 27.28
- Avg IV
- 101.3%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.62
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.62
- P/C Volume
- 0.40
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 2.03
- Correlation (SPY)
- 45.4%
- R²
- 0.21
- Ann. Volatility
- 58.1%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $9.90M | 33.03% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $6.76M | 22.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $6.64M | 22.14% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $4.38M | 14.60% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $1.30M | 4.35% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $429.26K | 1.43% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Walleye Capital LLC | $365.04K | 1.22% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Walleye Trading LLC | $204.49K | 0.68% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $5.82M | 27.79% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $5.11M | 24.41% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $4.58M | 21.88% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $3.09M | 14.74% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $802.75K | 3.83% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $463.06K | 2.21% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $378.56K | 1.81% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Tidal Investments LLC | $354.90K | 1.69% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Walleye Capital LLC | $167.31K | 0.80% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Walleye Trading LLC | $123.37K | 0.59% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | TORONTO DOMINION BANK | $50.67K | 0.24% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 12.8 |
| P/S Ratio | 21.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 148.5 |
| ROE | -5.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.19 |