SSL Sasol Limited
XNYS
18.10
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $5.97 – $18.19
- YTD
- +171.73%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 49.62
- Straddle Price
- $2.40
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.21
- Market Cap
- $11.2B
- Open
- $17.13
- Day Range
- $17.08 – $18.19
- Volume
- 1,755,968
- Prev Close
- $17.46
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.12% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.70 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 8.60% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 8.65% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +34.4pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $13.77 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $15.02 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 183.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $13.77 | 100% | stability 78% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $17.91 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew +1.00 |
- Industry (SIC)
- CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS (1311) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $11.2B
- Employees
- 27,239
- List Date
- 1982-04-26
- CIK
- 0000314590
- Homepage
- https://www.sasol.com
Sasol Ltd is an energy and chemicals company. Its operating model comprises two distinct businesses: Southern Africa Energy and Chemicals and International Chemicals. The Group's reportable segments are: Mining, Gas, Fuels, Chemicals Africa (part of the Southern Africa Energy and Chemicals business division), and America and Eurasia (part of the International Chemicals division). Maximum revenue is derived from the Fuels segment, which comprises the sales and marketing of liquid fuels produced in South Africa and sold under both short-and long-term agreements for retail sales and commercial sa…
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 19.04% | 32.70% | 17.14% | -14.33% | -1.47% | 6.91% | 10.00% |
| Feb | 15.34% | -2.46% | -21.34% | -12.67% | -8.58% | 26.35% | -0.56% |
| Mar | 10.78% | 3.78% | -9.18% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 45.45% | 8.53% |
| Apr | 10.88% | -2.22% | -8.37% | -9.29% | -19.44% | 14.40% | -2.34% |
| May | -2.56% | 9.84% | -10.66% | -1.73% | 28.70% | -9.71% | 2.31% |
| Jun | -12.20% | -10.45% | 4.92% | 19.84% | -3.49% | -23.22% | -4.10% |
| Jul | -4.05% | -2.95% | 11.76% | 5.22% | 11.30% | 22.13% | 7.23% |
| Aug | 3.22% | -6.90% | -6.86% | -4.16% | 37.27% | 6.94% | 4.92% |
| Sep | 22.34% | -17.06% | 4.35% | -3.98% | -10.50% | 11.00% | 1.03% |
| Oct | -10.57% | 0.72% | -4.50% | -15.91% | 1.93% | 29.45%* | 0.19% |
| Nov | -4.52% | 11.03% | -12.25% | -12.41% | 1.88% | -- | -3.25% |
| Dec | -0.06% | -1.75% | -11.33% | -13.14% | 0.46% | -- | -5.16% |
| Total | 49.19% | 6.38% | -41.99% | -50.43% | 28.88% | 192.42% | 30.74% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers: The stock's beta is negative, indicating it moves opposite to the market, which could lead to unexpected volatility increases. Recent news headlines are mostly neutral, with no significant catalysts driving the price.
Primary Risks: Volatility spikes, earnings miss, or changes in wax and N-butanol demand could impact the stock's performance.
Investment Thesis: The stock is trading within a range-bound environment, with some technical signals indicating potential for a breakout. However, the negative beta and neutral news sentiment suggest caution is warranted.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Neutral news headlines have not significantly impacted the stock price, but the market narrative suggests that changes in wax and N-butanol demand could influence future performance.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): NEUTRAL
- Medium-term (1-3 months): RANGE-BOUND
- Long-term (3-12 months): BULLISH
Support/Resistance Levels:
- SMA 20: $11.90 (support)
- EMA 12: $12.09 (resistance)
- Upper Bollinger Band: $12.75 (resistance)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: NEUTRAL (56.57) - not overbought or oversold
- MACD signal: BULLISH - bullish momentum persists
- Bollinger Bands position: NEUTRAL - price is within the bands
Volume Analysis: Volume is moderate, with no significant institutional interest signals.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: Neutral news headlines dominated the recent period, focusing on market sizes and business performance metrics.
Sentiment Assessment: Aggregate sentiment is NEUTRAL.
Catalyst Identification: No significant upcoming events or product launches that could drive the stock price.
Market Narrative: The market narrative suggests that changes in wax and N-butanol demand could influence future performance.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: Negative beta (-0.42) indicates the stock moves opposite to the market, increasing volatility risk.
Volatility Regime: Current volatility is moderate (0.55), with historical volatility levels indicating a relatively high-risk environment.
Options Market Signals: IV rank is low (9.7%), suggesting historically low volatility, while put/call ratios indicate bearish sentiment.
Downside Protection: Support levels are present at $11.90 (SMA 20) and $11.04 (lower Bollinger Band).
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: The sector is performing well, with the stock's performance mirroring market trends.
Institutional Activity: No significant institutional interest signals.
Correlation Analysis: Correlation with SPY is low (-0.10), indicating a relatively independent performance.
Relative Valuation: The stock is trading within its historical range, with no significant valuation anomalies.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support: $11.90 (SMA 20)
- Resistance: $12.75 (upper Bollinger Band)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Breakout level: $13.00 (50% Fibonacci extension above SMA 200)
- Breakdown level: $10.21 (lower Bollinger Band)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No significant upcoming events or product launches that could drive the stock price.
Risk Management: Consider setting stop-loss levels at $11.90 and position sizing accordingly to manage risk.
SSL Options Activity & IV Rank
SSL IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Options Flow
ATM Options Pricing
Chain Summary
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 96th percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $2.9M | #1756 of 3138 | -14.8% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $1.8M | #2631 of 3716 | -13.9% | 13F | |
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $1.1M | #1467 of 1945 | -91.8% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $594K | #4278 of 6285 | -86.8% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $220K | #2552 of 4729 | +5.8% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
SSL Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEAK6 LLC | $2.95M | 40.50% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Caption Management, LLC | $2.26M | 31.11% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $945.67K | 13.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $706.06K | 9.71% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $413.42K | 5.68% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
SSL Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-10-01| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Christiaan Horst Herrmann | EVP, Marketing and Sales | Mixed | +134 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Vuyo Dominic Kahla | EVP, Commercial and Legal | Mixed | — | $14.14 | -$305.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-01 | Simon Baloyi | Chief Executive Officer | Mixed | +225 | $14.14 | -$30.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-01 | Walt Paul Bruns | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +191 | $14.14 | -$25.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Vuyo Dominic Kahla | EVP, Commercial and Legal | Mixed | — | $12.70 | -$287.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Sandile Lawrence Siyaya | EVP, Mining | Mixed | +301 | $12.70 | -$36.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Sarushen Dhanapalan Pillay | EVP, Business Building | Mixed | +83 | $12.70 | -$9.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Simon Baloyi | Chief Executive Officer | Mixed | +532 | $12.70 | -$64.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Victor Bester | EVP, Operations and Projects | Mixed | +301 | $12.70 | -$36.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Walt Paul Bruns | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | −4,417 | $12.70 | -$100.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-24 | Christiaan Horst Herrmann | EVP, Marketing and Sales | Mixed | +235 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-15 | Sarushen Dhanapalan Pillay | EVP, Business Building | Mixed | +136 | $13.14 | -$28.7K | EDGAR |
SSL Insider Holdings
6 insiders · @ $18.09| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vuyo Dominic Kahla | EVP, Commercial and Legal | 136,432 | $2.47M | -$593.1K | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 2 | Simon Baloyi | Chief Executive Officer | 106,477 | $1.93M | -$94.0K | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 3 | Walt Paul Bruns | Chief Financial Officer | 54,819 | $991.7K | -$125.6K | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 4 | Victor Bester | EVP, Operations and Projects | 26,855 | $485.8K | -$36.2K | 1 | 2026-09-24 |
| 5 | Sarushen Dhanapalan Pillay | EVP, Business Building | 16,396 | $296.6K | -$38.6K | 2 | 2026-09-24 |
| 6 | Sandile Lawrence Siyaya | EVP, Mining | 301 | $5.4K | -$36.1K | 1 | 2026-09-24 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IDVO Amplify CWP International Enhanced Dividend Income ETF | Amplify | 2.75% | $38.2M | $1.4B | 2026-10-22 |
| 2 | AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF | Avantis | 0.11% | $30.3M | $27.6B | 2026-10-21 |
| 3 | CGNG Capital Group New Geography Equity ETF | Capitalgroup | 0.11% | $3.5M | $3.1B | 2026-10-21 |
| 4 | AVES Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF | Avantis | 0.22% | $3.4M | $1.5B | 2026-10-21 |
| 5 | AVXC Avantis Emerging Markets ex-China Equity ETF | Avantis | 0.25% | $1.1M | $450.6M | 2026-10-21 |
| 6 | AADR AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright ADR ETF | Nport | 2.05% | $854,507 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | APIE ActivePassive International Equity ETF | Nport | 0.07% | $760,458 | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 8 | AFK VanEck Africa Index ETF | VanEck | 0.69% | $662,592 | $93.9M | 2026-10-21 |
| 9 | AFEM First Trust Active Factor Emerging Markets ETF | First Trust | 0.75% | $602,462 | $79.9M | 2026-10-21 |
| 10 | AVNC Avantis All International Core Equity ETF | Avantis | 0.49% | $472,489 | $97.4M | 2026-10-21 |
| 11 | NSI National Security Emerging Markets Index ETF | Nport | 0.25% | $102,671 | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 12 | BFLX iShares Flexible Equity Active ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | -0.10% | $-2,235,045 | $2.2B | 2026-10-21 |
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.