Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock(ULTA)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$460.84
- 52-Week Range
- $452.00 – $714.97
- YTD
- -25.68%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 35.76
- Straddle Price
- $36.60
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 2.51
- Market Cap
- $20.3B
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.47% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.97% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.97% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +17.0pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 24.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +30.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $1.1B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 41.1% |
| Book / Price | 13.2% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 39.1% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 8.6% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 4/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +8.1% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $523.36 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $503.90 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 2.5% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.4B |
| Market Cap | $21B |
Peers used for multiples: AZO, LOW, ORLY, ROST, TJX
Blended Fair Value
$831.60
Current Price
$460.23
Deviation
+50.0%
Forward-Return Rank
LONG
gated
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | +0.6% | -0.12 | +0.66 | 66.6% | — |
| 42d | +0.7% | +0.06 | +0.75 | 69.8% | — |
| 63d | -0.5% ⚠ | -0.11 | +0.66 | 66.1% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $1796.78 | 17% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $773.01 | 12% | median 27.4× · 5 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $854.67 | 12% | median 18.9× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/S | $833.76 | 8% | median 2.8× · 5 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $523.36 | 33% | stability 100% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $508.46 | 17% | 66 strikes · skew +0.23 |
As of 2026-06-04 · updated 2026-06-04 19:02:09.622000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- RETAIL-RETAIL STORES, NEC (5990)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $20.3B
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the US with more than 1,500 freestanding stores. The firm offers cosmetics (38% of 2025 sales), fragrances (13%), skin care (24%), and hair care products (19%). It also has salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow, that account for 4% of its revenue and drive customer traffic. Outside of the US, Ulta operates premium beauty retailer Space NK (86 stores at year-end 2025 in the UK and Ireland) and has franchised stores in Mexico, and a joint venture in the Middle East. In addition, Ulta collects royalties through its Target …
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.34% | 19 |
| Feb | +0.59% | 19 |
| Mar | +2.89% | 19 |
| Apr | +4.72% | 19 |
| May | +2.09% | 19 |
| Jun | +0.83% | 19 |
| Jul | -1.18% | 18 |
| Aug | -0.81% | 18 |
| Sep | +8.64% | 18 |
| Oct | -2.39% | 19 |
| Nov | +3.87% | 19 |
| Dec | -0.29% | 19 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $500.17
SMA 50: $522.27
SMA 200: $566.47
Current: $460.61
EMA 12: $494.20
EMA 26: $507.15
MACD: -12.9459 | Signal: -2.1890
BEARISH
ADX (14): 28.90
TREND
+DI: 13.44
−DI: 34.66
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 30.93
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 21.10
Stoch %D: 38.52
Williams %R: -97.21
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $533.87
BB Lower: $466.48
OVERSOLD
OBV: -18,322,283
Vol SMA 20: 869,849
Vol ROC: 28.59%
ATR: $17.18
True Range: $21.48
HV 20: 32.1%
HV 30: 30.7%
HV 60: 43.5%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-04T19:00:14.132000
Date Range: 2024-06-05T00:00:00 – 2026-06-03T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Same old Palo Alto reaction, and Ulta Beauty delivered a solid quarter.
Image source: The Motley Fool. Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. ET Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email pr@fool.com Continue reading
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 35.76
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 48.3%
- Straddle (30D)
- $36.60
- Straddle (7D)
- $19.60
- P/C Volume
- 2.51
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.66
- Correlation (SPY)
- 23.6%
- R²
- 0.06
- Ann. Volatility
- 33.3%
- SPY Volatility
- 11.9%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 45,126,500 (as of 2026-01-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
31 filers$994.48M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $299.77M | 30.14% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $218.75M | 22.00% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $99.31M | 9.99% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $63.93M | 6.43% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | BARCLAYS PLC Custodian | $52.48M | 5.28% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $48.56M | 4.88% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $42.76M | 4.30% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $37.15M | 3.74% | 2025-09-30 |
| 9 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $21.59M | 2.17% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Walleye Trading LLC | $19.44M | 1.96% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $13.80M | 1.39% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | $13.22M | 1.33% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Twin Tree Management, LP | $11.40M | 1.15% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $10.82M | 1.09% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | Alphadyne Asset Management LP | $8.36M | 0.84% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $5.41M | 0.54% | 2025-09-30 |
| 17 | CITIGROUP INC Custodian | $4.81M | 0.48% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $4.60M | 0.46% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $3.66M | 0.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $2.93M | 0.29% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $2.61M | 0.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $2.35M | 0.24% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | Verition Fund Management LLC | $2.09M | 0.21% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | $1.31M | 0.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS Custodian | $1.31M | 0.13% | 2026-03-31 |
28 filers$781.82M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $319.43M | 40.86% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $74.70M | 9.55% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $73.23M | 9.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $59.90M | 7.66% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $45.27M | 5.79% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | MARSHALL WACE, LLP Custodian | $39.20M | 5.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $30.56M | 3.91% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | BARCLAYS PLC Custodian | $22.22M | 2.84% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $17.67M | 2.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Walleye Trading LLC | $17.67M | 2.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Alphadyne Asset Management LP | $15.32M | 1.96% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $9.98M | 1.28% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $8.00M | 1.02% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $7.42M | 0.95% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $7.42M | 0.95% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $6.23M | 0.80% | 2025-09-30 |
| 17 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $6.01M | 0.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS Custodian | $3.87M | 0.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $3.40M | 0.43% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | CITIGROUP INC Custodian | $3.29M | 0.42% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | Verition Fund Management LLC | $2.87M | 0.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $2.67M | 0.34% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $1.78M | 0.23% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | $1.31M | 0.17% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | Walleye Capital LLC | $1.05M | 0.13% | 2026-03-31 |
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 18.0 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.7 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6 |
| TTM Revenue | $12.4B |
| TTM Net Income | $1.2B |
| TTM EPS | $25.61 |
| ROE | 41.1% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.02 |