Union Pacific Corp.(UNP)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$270.47
- 52-Week Range
- $210.84 – $279.70
- YTD
- +16.63%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 34.7
- Straddle Price
- $16.85
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.94
- Market Cap
- $161.7B
Fair Value
-23.8% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.49% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.99% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.05% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +21.3pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 22.2% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +1.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.01 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $5.7B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 37.1% |
| Book / Price | 12.0% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 86.6% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 23.1% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.53 |
| Quality Score | 4/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +14.4% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $259.66 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $267.43 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 2.5% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $29.0B |
| Market Cap | $162B |
Peers used for multiples: CSX, DAL, FDX, JBHT, NSC, ODFL, UPS, XPO
Blended Fair Value
$206.07
Current Price
$270.38
Deviation
-23.8%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gates ✓
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -1.2% | +0.88 | -0.87 | 25.0% | — |
| 42d | -2.8% | +0.61 | -0.87 | 25.0% | — |
| 63d | -3.4% | +0.35 | -0.87 | 25.0% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $87.53 | 16% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $62.19 | 13% | |
| Peer P/E | $331.26 | 7% | median 27.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $278.88 | 7% | median 15.5× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $200.43 | 1% | median 6.1× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $111.25 | 5% | median 2.7× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $259.66 | 33% | stability 100% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $272.40 | 16% | 43 strikes · skew +1.37 |
As of 2026-06-08 · updated 2026-06-08 19:22:08.278000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING (4011)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $161.7B
Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific is the largest public railroad in North America. Operating on more than 30,000 miles of track in the western two-thirds of the US, Union Pacific generated $24.5 billion of revenue in 2025 by hauling coal, industrial products, intermodal containers, agricultural goods, chemicals, fertilizers, and automotive goods. Union Pacific owns about one-fourth of Mexican railroad Ferromex and historically derives roughly 10% of its revenue hauling freight to and from Mexico.
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.28% | 23 |
| Feb | +1.50% | 23 |
| Mar | +0.76% | 23 |
| Apr | +3.20% | 23 |
| May | -1.80% | 23 |
| Jun | -2.36% | 23 |
| Jul | +3.30% | 22 |
| Aug | -1.32% | 22 |
| Sep | -0.10% | 23 |
| Oct | +1.63% | 23 |
| Nov | +3.42% | 23 |
| Dec | +1.14% | 23 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $267.71
SMA 50: $260.28
SMA 200: $240.43
Current: $270.31
EMA 12: $267.39
EMA 26: $265.81
MACD: 1.5858 | Signal: -0.4290
BULLISH
ADX (14): 18.33
RANGE
+DI: 25.48
−DI: 16.75
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 55.06
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 48.40
Stoch %D: 35.73
Williams %R: -44.63
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $276.66
BB Lower: $258.77
NEUTRAL
OBV: 62,318,593
Vol SMA 20: 3,094,291
Vol ROC: -47.26%
ATR: $6.48
True Range: $4.92
HV 20: 28.6%
HV 30: 25.2%
HV 60: 26.5%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-08T19:20:25.190000
Date Range: 2024-06-07T00:00:00 – 2026-06-05T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Shares of Union Pacific Corp. and Norfolk Southern Corp. slumped the most in more than a year after a key regulator paused its review of their planned $72 billion merger, potentially delaying what would be the biggest rail deal ever.
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 34.7
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 44.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $16.85
- Straddle (7D)
- $6.80
- P/C Volume
- 0.94
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.39
- Correlation (SPY)
- 21.8%
- R²
- 0.05
- Ann. Volatility
- 21.5%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.1%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 594,375,000 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
50 filers$1.10B notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $281.58M | 25.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $208.75M | 18.89% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $178.18M | 16.13% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $103.99M | 9.41% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $55.34M | 5.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $50.15M | 4.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $33.09M | 2.99% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN Custodian | $24.26M | 2.20% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Walleye Trading LLC | $20.79M | 1.88% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $15.55M | 1.41% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Custodian | $14.11M | 1.28% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | Allianz Asset Management GmbH | $13.66M | 1.24% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | STATE OF WISCONSIN INVESTMENT BOARD | $12.13M | 1.10% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | Eisler Capital Management Ltd. | $9.69M | 0.88% | 2025-09-30 |
| 15 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $8.71M | 0.79% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $8.66M | 0.78% | 2026-03-31 |
| 17 | Calamos Advisors LLC | $8.33M | 0.75% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | PEAK6 LLC | $7.08M | 0.64% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | Walleye Capital LLC | $5.75M | 0.52% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $5.10M | 0.46% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | Symmetry Investments LP | $4.85M | 0.44% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $4.68M | 0.42% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $4.49M | 0.41% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | Alphadyne Asset Management LP | $4.12M | 0.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | CAPSTONE INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC | $2.64M | 0.24% | 2026-03-31 |
39 filers$618.18M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $113.28M | 18.32% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $70.58M | 11.42% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $51.34M | 8.30% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $47.65M | 7.71% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | Walleye Trading LLC | $41.03M | 6.64% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $36.32M | 5.88% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $34.69M | 5.61% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | CITIGROUP INC Custodian | $22.20M | 3.59% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Allianz Asset Management GmbH | $18.97M | 3.07% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $17.95M | 2.90% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Eisler Capital Management Ltd. | $17.63M | 2.85% | 2025-09-30 |
| 12 | BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | $17.27M | 2.79% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN Custodian | $15.77M | 2.55% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | CAPSTONE INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC | $15.70M | 2.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $13.95M | 2.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | MARSHALL WACE, LLP Custodian | $13.34M | 2.16% | 2026-03-31 |
| 17 | Centiva Capital, LP | $12.13M | 1.96% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $8.32M | 1.35% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | Walleye Capital LLC | $7.62M | 1.23% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS Custodian | $4.78M | 0.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | LOGAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC | $4.59M | 0.74% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | Alphadyne Asset Management LP | $4.54M | 0.73% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | Verition Fund Management LLC | $3.98M | 0.64% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $3.83M | 0.62% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $3.83M | 0.62% | 2026-03-31 |
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 22.3 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.1 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0 |
| TTM Revenue | $24.7B |
| TTM Net Income | $7.2B |
| TTM EPS | $12.14 |
| ROE | 37.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.08% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.58 |