Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether Itamar Ben Gvir will be the next Prime Minister of Israel is currently pricing his likelihood at 0%, indicating a perceived zero probability of this outcome. The current price is informed by the fact that Ben Gvir's political party, Otzma Yehudit, has historically had limited influence in Israeli politics and has not held significant cabinet positions. The market is also influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming parliamentary election in October 2026, as well as the complex dynamics of coalition formation in Israel. A change in price upwards would likely require a significant shift in public opinion or a notable increase in Ben Gvir's political influence, such as a major policy victory or a prominent cabinet appointment. Conversely, a decrease in price would be driven by a decline in his perceived chances of becoming Prime Minister, potentially due to internal party conflicts or external factors impacting his political standing.