Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether Gadi Eizenkot will be the next Prime Minister of Israel indicates a 52% probability, as reflected by the current YES price of 0.52. This assessment is informed by known facts about Eizenkot's background and experience in Israeli politics. The market is currently pricing in the possibility that Eizenkot may emerge as a strong candidate for the top office following the scheduled parliamentary election on October 27, 2026. Any changes to this probability would likely be driven by new information or developments that impact Eizenkot's chances of being appointed Prime Minister. A decrease in the YES price could result from increased competition or challenges to Eizenkot's candidacy, while an increase might occur if he gains momentum or endorsements that bolster his prospects.