Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether Avigdor Lieberman will be the next Prime Minister of Israel suggests a 4% probability of this outcome. This assessment is informed by current political dynamics and the scheduled parliamentary election in October 2026. The market's low price reflects the uncertainty surrounding Lieberman's chances of becoming the next Prime Minister, as well as the complexity of Israeli politics. Any significant changes to the political landscape or developments that impact Lieberman's standing within his party or coalition would likely influence the market price, potentially driving it up if such events improve his prospects or down if they diminish them.