Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether Naftali Bennett will be the next Prime Minister of Israel is currently pricing him at a 12% probability, with a YES price of 0.12. This assessment is informed by known facts about Bennett's political standing and the current state of Israeli politics. The market is asking whether Bennett will be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the scheduled October 27, 2026 parliamentary election or any potential early election that may be called. Any changes to Bennett's political fortunes, such as a significant shift in public opinion or a major scandal, could impact the price of this market, driving it up if his prospects improve or down if they decline.