Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether Gideon Sa'ar will be the next Prime Minister of Israel indicates a 1% probability, as reflected by the current YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about Sa'ar's political career and the current state of Israeli politics. The market is asking whether Sa'ar will be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the scheduled 2026 parliamentary election or any potential early election that may occur. Any changes to the likelihood of Sa'ar becoming Prime Minister, such as shifts in his political standing or developments within the Israeli political landscape, could impact the market price. A decrease in the YES price would suggest a lower probability of Sa'ar being appointed Prime Minister, while an increase would indicate a higher likelihood.