Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel is currently priced at 0.38, indicating a 38% probability that he will hold the position after the next election. This assessment is informed by known facts about Netanyahu's political career and his party's performance in recent elections. The current price may be influenced by factors such as Netanyahu's ability to form a coalition government, the popularity of his policies among Israeli voters, and any potential challenges or scandals that could impact his candidacy. A change in these dynamics could cause the price to move up if Netanyahu's chances of becoming Prime Minister improve, or down if his prospects decline. The market will resolve on December 31, 2026, once the next Prime Minister is officially appointed and sworn in following the 2026 parliamentary election.