Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares(PGY)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$15.69
After hours
$15.80
+0.77%
- 52-Week Range
- $10.40 – $44.99
- YTD
- -29.58%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 11.21
- Straddle Price
- $2.65
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.16
- Market Cap
- $1.3B
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.55% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.96% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 7.92% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +11.1pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +41bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -5.9% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 17.8% |
| Book / Price | 43.5% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Bank Quality Adj | ×2.00 (target ROE vs peer median) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 40.5% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 18.3% |
| Debt / Equity | 1.48 |
| Quality Score | 3/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $13.89 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $14.26 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 201.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.6B |
| Market Cap | $1B |
Peers used for multiples: COIN, MSTR, RIOT, SOFI, SYF
(SIC-code peers; ETF co-membership was sector-incoherent)
Blended Fair Value
$65.86
Current Price
$15.68
Deviation
+50.0%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $24.80 | 53% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $80.79 | 16% | median 37.1× · 3 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | $13.29 | 24% | median 2.0× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/S | $467.41 | 8% | median 15.1× · 5 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $13.89 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-15 · updated 2026-06-15 20:59:55.690000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- FINANCE SERVICES (6199)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $1.3B
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is a product-focused technology company. It uses machine learning, a vast data network, and an AI-driven approach to offer comprehensive consumer credit and residential real estate products for its partners, their customers, and investors. Its suite of products includes Decline Monetization, Dual Look, First Look, Affiliate Optimizer Engine, Direct Marketing Engine, and FastPass, providing lenders with an AI-powered credit and acquisition ecosystem that helps them approve more borrowers, capture more demand, and grow without adding risk. Geographically, the company gene…
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | -9.83% | 4 |
| Feb | +5.17% | 4 |
| Mar | -14.47% | 4 |
| Apr | +0.93% | 4 |
| May | +23.88% | 4 |
| Jun | +5.22% | 5 |
| Jul | +150.34% | 4 |
| Aug | -8.34% | 4 |
| Sep | -40.07% | 4 |
| Oct | -13.74% | 4 |
| Nov | -10.97% | 4 |
| Dec | -0.01% | 4 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $14.36
SMA 50: $13.97
SMA 200: $20.92
Current: $15.68
EMA 12: $14.98
EMA 26: $14.51
MACD: 0.4714 | Signal: 0.0999
BULLISH
ADX (14): 31.76
TREND
+DI: 29.55
−DI: 9.03
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 57.65
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 77.27
Stoch %D: 71.70
Williams %R: -29.85
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $16.47
BB Lower: $12.26
NEUTRAL
OBV: 5,147,744
Vol SMA 20: 3,917,634
Vol ROC: -34.84%
ATR: $1.15
True Range: $1.26
HV 20: 82.9%
HV 30: 74.9%
HV 60: 71.4%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-15T21:15:17.965000
Date Range: 2024-06-17T00:00:00 – 2026-06-15T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Two AI-powered disruptors are reshaping how lenders assess risk, but their business models, financials, and growth strategies reveal notable differences.
Earnings History
4 of 8 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | After-Close | 10.73% | 14.52% | 1.35x | Exceeded |
| 2024-11-12 | Pre-Market | 19.04% | 35.71% | 1.88x | Exceeded |
| 2025-02-13 | Pre-Market | 19.38% | 21.08% | 1.09x | Exceeded |
| 2025-05-07 | Pre-Market | 18.66% | 3.22% | 0.17x | Within |
| 2025-08-07 | After-Close | 9.84% | 6.47% | 0.66x | Within |
| 2025-11-10 | Pre-Market | 21.70% | 11.35% | 0.52x | Within |
| 2026-02-09 | Pre-Market | 19.03% | 22.31% | 1.17x | Exceeded |
| 2026-05-07 | Pre-Market | 17.85% | 4.38% | 0.25x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 11.21
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 107.5%
- Straddle (30D)
- $2.65
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.10
- P/C Volume
- 0.16
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
ATM — / Wing —
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 3.40
- Correlation (SPY)
- 52.5%
- R²
- 0.28
- Ann. Volatility
- 80.3%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.4%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 87,639,098 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
14 filers$40.85M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $10.80M | 26.44% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $9.73M | 23.82% | 2025-09-30 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $8.18M | 20.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | Caption Management, LLC | $3.49M | 8.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | Creek Drive Management Group LLC | $2.93M | 7.16% | 2025-12-31 |
| 6 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $2.39M | 5.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $1.17M | 2.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $666.38K | 1.63% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $623.27K | 1.53% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $460.19K | 1.13% | 2025-09-30 |
| 11 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $206.21K | 0.50% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | Walleye Trading LLC | $184.07K | 0.45% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Skaana Management L.P. | $26.80K | 0.07% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | Private Advisor Group, LLC | $5.80K | 0.01% | 2026-03-31 |
15 filers$31.52M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $9.90M | 31.41% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | Lombard Odier Asset Management (USA) Corp | $4.19M | 13.30% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $3.99M | 12.66% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $2.36M | 7.48% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | Caption Management, LLC | $2.32M | 7.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $2.11M | 6.68% | 2025-09-30 |
| 7 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $1.71M | 5.43% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $1.46M | 4.62% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.17M | 3.70% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Walleye Trading LLC | $1.06M | 3.36% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $703.66K | 2.23% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $375.13K | 1.19% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Skaana Management L.P. | $69.90K | 0.22% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $60.58K | 0.19% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | HAP TRADING, LLC | $52.32K | 0.17% | 2025-09-30 |
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 14.4 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.4 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| TTM Revenue | $1.3B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.1B |
| TTM EPS | $1.09 |
| ROE | 17.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.50% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.69 |