TALO Talos Energy, Inc. Common Stock
XNYS 17.77 DelayedStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
TALO
$17.77
—
Key stats
$17.77
- 52-Week Range
- $8.96 – $18.73
- YTD
- +57.96%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 34.65
- Straddle Price
- $2.58
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.12
- Market Cap
- $2.8B
- Open
- $17.18
- Day Range
- $16.98 – $17.79
- Volume
- 6,224,640
- Prev Close
- $16.98
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.21% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.76 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.02% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 7.93% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +103.4pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +30.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.3B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -19.9% |
| Book / Price | 69.7% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 71.4% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 16.7% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.60 |
| Quality Score | 4/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | -5.9% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $16.73 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $16.75 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 51.6% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.7B |
| Market Cap | $3B |
Peers used for multiples: COP, OII, PARR, PSX, SM
(filtered from 8 ETF-co-members; sector bias active)
Blended Fair Value
$120.81
Deviation
+50.0%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $214.97 | 48% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 12.4× · 5 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $55.81 | 14% | median 7.4× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/B | $31.02 | 19% | median 2.6× · 5 peers |
| Peer P/S | $19.15 | 19% | median 1.5× · 5 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $16.73 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $16.36 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew -0.34 |
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS (1311) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $2.8B
- Employees
- 700
- List Date
- 2018-05-10
- CIK
- 0001724965
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-03 (After-Close)
- EPS Forecast
- $0.36 (3 est.)
- Headquarters
- Houston, TX
- Homepage
- https://www.talosenergy.com
Talos Energy Inc is an independent oil and gas company predominantly involved in offshore exploration and production. The company has operations in the United States, the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore Mexico. The company's operating segments are; exploration and production of oil, natural gas and NGLs, and the CCS segment. Its revenue is generated from the sale of oil, natural gas, and NGL quantities sold to purchasers.
Summary
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composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -0.35% | 4.83% | 7.43% | -9.93% | -1.49% | 5.96% | 1.07% |
| Feb | 23.43% | 39.15% | -8.34% | 5.10% | -3.64% | 5.42% | 10.19% |
| Mar | 10.46% | -7.88% | -6.73% | 4.50% | 16.41% | 22.17% | 6.49% |
| Apr | -13.39% | 6.57% | -13.35% | -5.32% | -27.20% | 6.63% | -7.68% |
| May | 20.78% | 18.94% | -9.49% | -6.97% | 12.76% | -5.72% | 5.05% |
| Jun | 5.32% | -32.06% | 8.53% | 8.48% | 5.47% | -13.24% | -2.92% |
| Jul | -29.63% | 21.79% | 14.53% | -0.50% | 0.23% | 13.20% | 3.27% |
| Aug | 10.42% | 16.13% | 7.83% | -0.78% | 24.43% | 16.07% | 12.35% |
| Sep | 12.32% | -15.57% | -5.08% | -6.76% | -3.91% | -5.44% | -4.07% |
| Oct | -10.30% | 13.55% | -0.19% | -2.01% | 0.93% | 6.79%* | 1.46% |
| Nov | -26.96% | -9.82% | -7.45% | 11.61% | 16.11% | -- | -3.30% |
| Dec | 3.38% | -0.84% | 2.23% | -13.07% | -3.08% | -- | -2.28% |
| Total | -11.52% | 40.31% | -13.46% | -17.28% | 30.22% | 57.93% | 14.37% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $16.79
SMA 50: $16.80
SMA 200: $14.65
Current: $17.77
EMA 12: $17.10
EMA 26: $16.93
MACD: 0.1690 | Signal: 0.0663
BULLISH
ADX (14): 13.55
RANGE
+DI: 26.37
−DI: 19.36
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 60.19
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 69.54
Stoch %D: 70.57
Williams %R: -1.15
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $17.64
BB Lower: $15.95
OVERBOUGHT
OBV: 88,077,039
Vol SMA 20: 3,012,693
Vol ROC: 365.33%
ATR: $0.62
True Range: $0.81
HV 20: 36.3%
HV 30: 37.1%
HV 60: 42.3%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis
TALOS ENERGY CORP (TALO) - COMPREHENSIVE STOCK ANALYSIS
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BULLISH | Confidence Level: 7/10
Investment Thesis: Talos Energy presents a moderately bullish setup characterized by positive technical momentum, bullish options positioning, and constructive recent news sentiment, offset by a concerning negative beta that inverts typical market relationships. The stock is trading above all major moving averages with MACD in bullish crossover territory, supported by a 257% volume rate of change spike. However, the negative beta (-0.90) creates asymmetric risk in a rising market environment, and the recent insider selling warrants monitoring.
Key Drivers:
- Strong bullish technical momentum with price at $17.52 above SMA 20 ($16.78), SMA 50 ($16.80), and SMA 200 ($14.64)
- Positive news narrative around production growth, strategic partnerships (Nasdaq, Netcoins), and energy sector tailwinds
- Extreme volume spike (257% rate of change) suggesting institutional accumulation
- Bullish options positioning (0.13 put/call volume ratio, 0.07 OI ratio)
Primary Risks:
- Negative beta (-0.90) creates inverse correlation to market movements—significant risk in bull markets
- Insider selling signal ($1.5M dumped 2026-09-15) contradicts bullish technicals
- Low ADX (13.13) indicates range-bound regime despite bullish momentum signals
- Elevated IV premium (+62.4% vs realized volatility) suggests options are richly priced
- Earnings catalyst approaching (2026-11-03, 19 days out)
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
Short-term (1-4 weeks): BULLISH
- Price $17.52 is 4.4% above SMA 20 ($16.78) and 4.2% above SMA 50 ($16.80)
- EMA 12 ($17.06) > EMA 26 ($16.91) confirming uptrend initiation
- Price trading near upper Bollinger Band ($17.57), just $0.05 below
- 19-day advance before earnings provides runway for technical follow-through
Medium-term (1-3 months): NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH
- Price has advanced 19.6% from SMA 200 ($14.64), establishing medium-term uptrend
- However, ADX (13.13) is weak, indicating range-bound trading despite upside bias
- Stochastic indicators (%K: 64.66, %D: 68.94) are elevated but not yet overbought—room to run
Long-term (3-12 months): NEUTRAL
- Limited data provided; long-term trend unclear given negative beta relationship
- Price stability relative to 200-day MA ($14.64) shows 19.6% gain, but ADX weakness limits confidence in sustained uptrend
Support/Resistance Levels
Resistance:
- Immediate: $17.57 (Upper Bollinger Band) — only $0.05 overhead
- Secondary: $18.00-$18.50 (round number, psychological level)
- Major: $19.00+ (multi-month resistance, estimated from 200-day performance)
Support:
- Immediate: $17.00 (EMA 12 / psychological level)
- Primary: $16.80 (SMA 50 / SMA 20 convergence zone)
- Major: $15.99 (Lower Bollinger Band)
- Critical: $14.64 (SMA 200 — major trend support)
Key Observation: Support levels are tightly clustered ($16.78-$17.00), creating a consolidated range. Break below $16.78 risks acceleration toward $15.99-$14.64.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 57.81 — Neutral
- Reading is in the neutral zone (30-70), neither overbought nor oversold
- Suggests room for continued upside before hitting overbought territory (70)
- No imminent reversal signal from momentum perspective
MACD: 0.15 (MACD line) vs 0.05 (Signal line) — BULLISH CROSSOVER
- MACD line is 0.10 above signal line (positive histogram)
- Recent bullish crossover (or sustained position above signal line) confirms momentum
- Magnitude of histogram (0.10) is moderate, not extreme—suggests early-stage momentum
Stochastic Oscillators: %K 64.66 / %D 68.94
- Both readings elevated but not yet in overbought territory (>80)
- %D (68.94) slightly above %K (64.66) suggests minor divergence—early caution signal
- Potential for pullback if stochastic turns downward, but not imminent
Williams %R: -15.80
- Deep negative reading indicates strong upward momentum
- Readings between -20 and 0 suggest overbought conditions in mean-reversion context
- Confirms momentum alignment with MACD and price position
Bollinger Bands: Neutral
- Price $17.52 is 0.99 points below upper band ($17.57)—within band, not extended
- Band width (9.41) is moderate, indicating neither extreme compression (squeeze) nor extreme expansion
- Position near upper band + neutral width suggests potential consolidation or minor pullback
Volume Analysis
Volume Rate of Change: +257.44% (EXTREME SPIKE)
- This is an extraordinary reading indicating massive volume surge vs 20-day average (2,940,573.85)
- Suggests institutional accumulation or significant event catalyst
- Critical timing: Volume spike may correlate with Murphy Oil positive news (2026-10-15) or other recent positive catalysts
On-Balance Volume (OBV): 86,634,640.00
- Elevated absolute level suggests cumulative buying pressure
- No trend reversal indicated; continued accumulation profile
Volume Context: The 257% surge in recent volume is highly significant and supports bullish technical setup. This level of volume typically indicates institutional interest, potentially supporting the positive news narrative.
Data Quality Note: The extreme volume spike warrants verification—confirm whether this represents single-day volume anomaly or sustained elevated trading.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
Positive Sentiment (5 of 6 recent headlines):
-
Murphy Oil Production Growth (2026-10-15 — MOST RECENT): "Murphy Oil Advances Production Growth and Offshore Exploration"
- Alignment: Directly supports bullish technicals; timing aligns with volume spike
- Impact: Growth narrative provides fundamental justification for technical momentum
-
Nasdaq Partnership (2026-03-23): "Nasdaq and Talos Partner to Advance Tokenized Collateral Management"
- Strategic significance: Enterprise/institutional partnership validates Talos tech platform
- Timeline: ~7 months old; longer-term narrative builder rather than immediate catalyst
-
Netcoins Partnership (2026-05-05): "Netcoins Partners with Talos to Power Institutional-Grade Trading"
- Strategic significance: Second institutional partnership; confirms B2B2C positioning
- Timeline: ~5 months old; reinforces partnership strategy
-
Energy Stock Valuation (2026-03-13): "3 Cheap Mid-Cap Energy Stocks to Own as Oil Prices Surge to $100"
- Valuation narrative: Analyst positioning as undervalued mid-cap energy play
- Market context: Oil price environment supportive ($100 assumption)
-
Smart Money Positioning (2026-03-06): "Jobs Crash, War Flares: Smart Money Hides In These Stocks"
- Tactical narrative: Framed as defensive/smart-money positioning
- Credibility note: Benzinga article; general market commentary
Neutral/Negative Sentiment (1 headline):
- Insider Selling (2026-09-15 — RECENT): "Insider Dumps 90,000 Shares of Energy Stock, Valued at $1.5 Million"
- Significance: Classic bearish signal—insider liquidation often precedes reversals
- Quantum: $1.5M at current price (~86,000 shares @ $17.50) suggests meaningful insider stake being reduced
- Timing conflict: Only 30 days before positive Murphy Oil news; unusual
Generated
News
All TALO news →
Earnings History
19 of 22 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
11.72%
Avg Actual Move
4.77%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-11 | Pre-Market | 24.76% | 2.22% | 0.09x | Within |
| 2021-05-06 | Pre-Market | 10.11% | 0.57% | 0.06x | Within |
| 2021-10-12 | Pre-Market | 10.80% | 3.50% | 0.32x | Within |
| 2022-01-24 | Pre-Market | 16.36% | 3.58% | 0.22x | Within |
| 2022-05-04 | Pre-Market | 16.42% | 6.39% | 0.39x | Within |
| 2022-07-14 | Pre-Market | 1.17% | 2.64% | 2.26x | Exceeded |
| 2022-11-03 | Pre-Market | 13.97% | 1.14% | 0.08x | Within |
| 2023-03-01 | Pre-Market | 10.95% | 10.67% | 0.97x | Within |
| 2023-05-09 | Pre-Market | 9.88% | 15.50% | 1.57x | Exceeded |
| 2023-08-08 | Pre-Market | 10.55% | 0.61% | 0.06x | Within |
| 2023-11-07 | Pre-Market | 8.89% | 4.17% | 0.47x | Within |
| 2024-01-17 | Pre-Market | 4.43% | 0.95% | 0.21x | Within |
| 2024-05-06 | Pre-Market | 9.80% | 0.68% | 0.07x | Within |
| 2024-08-08 | Pre-Market | 10.18% | 16.97% | 1.67x | Exceeded |
| 2024-11-12 | Pre-Market | 6.58% | 1.70% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2025-02-27 | After-Close | 15.59% | 1.53% | 0.10x | Within |
| 2025-05-06 | Pre-Market | 10.96% | 4.38% | 0.40x | Within |
| 2025-08-06 | Pre-Market | 16.08% | 1.77% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2025-11-06 | After-Close | 9.97% | 6.13% | 0.61x | Within |
| 2026-02-25 | Pre-Market | 13.90% | 13.71% | 0.99x | Within |
| 2026-05-05 | After-Close | 11.31% | 5.41% | 0.48x | Within |
| 2026-08-04 | After-Close | 15.07% | 0.63% | 0.04x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
TALO Options Activity & IV Rank
TALO IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 59.3%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $2.58
7-DTE Move: $0.38
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 68
Put Volume: 8
P/C Volume: 0.118
BULLISH
Call OI: 464
Put OI: 33
P/C OI: 0.071
Total OI: 497
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $1.27
ATM Put: $1.30
Call %: 7.2%
Put %: 7.3%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 690
Chain OI: 5,467
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
HIGH γ vs HISTORY
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 81st percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
81%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.88
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.53
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.63
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.53: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.63: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 9 ATM contracts, 2k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM 58.5% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)34.6MediumOct 16
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$2.58Oct 16
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: -0.9117
Alpha: 92.85%
Correlation: -0.2403
R-Squared: 5.8%
Stock Volatility: 48.3%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own TALO
4 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridgewater Associates Hedge fund Ray Dalio | $9.3M | #347 of 997 | new | 13F | |
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $9.2M | #1101 of 3138 | +106.3% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $4.3M | #2136 of 3716 | -69.2% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $571K | #4324 of 6285 | -95.7% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
TALO Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 171,723,250 (as of 2026-06-30)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
7 filers$3.02M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $1.09M | 35.97% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $675.19K | 22.34% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $371.81K | 12.30% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $351.15K | 11.62% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $247.87K | 8.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Walleye Capital LLC | $160.08K | 5.30% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $129.10K | 4.27% | 2026-06-30 |
8 filers$2.51M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $1.06M | 42.35% | 2025-09-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $389.88K | 15.52% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $298.22K | 11.87% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $268.53K | 10.69% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $210.43K | 8.38% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $135.56K | 5.39% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Walleye Capital LLC | $126.52K | 5.04% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $19.36K | 0.77% | 2026-06-30 |
TALO Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-10-15Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Barbara J Faulkenberry | Director | Grant (A) | +4,624 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-15 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | 10%+ Owner | Sell (S) | −2,965,446 | $17.49 | -$51.87M | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-13 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | 10%+ Owner | Sell (S) | −6,240,000 | $17.12 | -$106.84M | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-08 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | 10%+ Owner | Sell (S) | −480,000 | $16.96 | -$8.14M | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-05 | William R. Langin | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −2,146 | $16.64 | -$35.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-22 | Gregory Babcock | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −682 | $17.01 | -$11.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-22 | Zachary B. Dailey | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −3,811 | $17.01 | -$64.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-17 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | 10%+ Owner | Sell (S) | −1,381,000 | $18.52 | -$25.58M | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-11 | Gregory Babcock | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −4,293 | $17.51 | -$75.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-11 | William S. Moss III | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −5,208 | $17.51 | -$91.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-11 | John B. Spath | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −5,552 | $17.51 | -$97.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-04 | William S. Moss III | See Remarks | Sell (S) | −120,000 | $17.32 | -$2.08M | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-31 | John B. Spath | See Remarks | Sell (S) | −90,000 | $16.90 | -$1.52M | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-31 | Gregory Babcock | See Remarks | Sell (S) | −61,307 | $16.74 | -$1.03M | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-06 | Gregory Babcock | See Remarks | Tax (F) | −438 | $13.47 | -$5.9K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
TALO Insider Holdings
16 insiders · @ $17.77
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | 10%+ Owner | 36,289,036 | $644.86M | $160.55M | 21 | 2026-10-13 |
| 2 | Timothy S. Duncan | See Remarks | 705,968 | $12.55M | $343.1K | 11 | 2024-11-19 |
| 3 | Paul R A Goodfellow | See Remarks | 509,853 | $9.06M | $0 | 4 | 2026-05-07 |
| 4 | William S. Moss III | See Remarks | 299,909 | $5.33M | -$2.08M | 22 | 2026-09-11 |
| 5 | Sergio L. Maiworm Jr. | See Remarks | 247,198 | $4.39M | $0 | 7 | 2025-03-12 |
| 6 | John B. Spath | See Remarks | 173,236 | $3.08M | -$1.52M | 14 | 2026-09-11 |
| 7 | John B Juneau | Director | 90,343 | $1.61M | $0 | 10 | 2026-03-12 |
| 8 | Shandell Szabo | Director | 82,111 | $1.46M | $0 | 7 | 2026-03-12 |
| 9 | Zachary B. Dailey | See Remarks | 81,313 | $1.44M | $0 | 4 | 2026-09-22 |
| 10 | Gregory Babcock | See Remarks | 79,534 | $1.41M | -$1.03M | 24 | 2026-09-22 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
TALO Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-08-27
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
2 filings
· $2.5M notice value
· 2 unique filers
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
Top 90-day filers:
Spath John B. (1, $1.5M) · Babcock Gregory (1, $1.0M)
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Babcock Gregory | Officer | 60,770 | $1.02M | 2026-08-27 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-27 | Spath John B. | Officer | 90,000 | $1.52M | 2026-08-27 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-03 | Glover Paula R | Director | 6,159 | $59.7K | 2025-09-03 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
100 ETFs hold TALO
25 shown · $736.63M total exposure · 0.16% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.13% | $127.3M | $102.9B | 2026-10-14 |
| 2 | AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | Avantis | 0.32% | $97.8M | $30.8B | 2026-10-14 |
| 3 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $66.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 4 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.07% | $58.2M | $78.9B | 2026-10-14 |
| 5 | DFSV Dimensional US Small Cap Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.21% | $55.6M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 6 | XOP State Street® SPDR® S&P® Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 1.23% | $54.7M | $4.4B | 2026-10-14 |
| 7 | DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.14% | $43.6M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 8 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.02% | $23.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 9 | DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.07% | $22.9M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 10 | IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.15% | $20.2M | $13.7B | 2026-10-14 |
| 11 | SPSM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600™ Small Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.13% | $19.3M | $15.5B | 2026-10-14 |
| 12 | IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.24% | $17.6M | $7.5B | 2026-10-14 |
| 13 | VDE Vanguard Energy ETF | Vanguard | 0.12% | $15.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 14 | DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF | Dimensional | 0.02% | $13.8M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 15 | FNDA Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company ETF | Nport | 0.15% | $13.0M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 16 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.07% | $12.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 17 | SLYV State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Value ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.24% | $11.1M | $4.7B | 2026-10-14 |
| 18 | BSVO EA Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value ETF | Nport | 0.42% | $10.1M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 19 | DFMC Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.13% | $9.6M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 20 | SYLD Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF | Nport | 0.95% | $9.1M | — | 2026-04-30 |
| 21 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.04% | $8.9M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 22 | BRES Burney U.S. Equity Select ETF | Nport | 1.29% | $8.7M | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 23 | VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Vanguard | 0.12% | $7.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 24 | FESM Fidelity Enhanced Small Cap Core ETF | Fidelity | 0.10% | $6.3M | $6.5B | 2026-10-14 |
| 25 | AVSC Avantis U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF | Avantis | 0.15% | $4.7M | $3.0B | 2026-10-14 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
—
TTM Diluted EPS
$-2.36
TTM Revenue
$1.98B
TTM Net Income
$-404.98M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$790.59M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $664.81M | $149.67M | $0.88 | $300.64M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $472.31M | $-256.17M | $-1.52 | $174.00M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $392.24M | $-202.58M | $-1.17 | $201.78M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $450.05M | $-95.91M | $-0.55 | $114.17M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $424.72M | $-185.94M | $-1.05 | $351.64M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $513.06M | $-9.87M | $-0.05 | $268.24M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $485.19M | $-64.51M | $-0.37 | $349.34M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $509.29M | $88.17M | $0.49 | $227.47M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $549.16M | $12.38M | $0.07 | $289.36M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $429.93M | $-112.44M | $-0.71 | $96.43M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $384.96M | $85.90M | $0.70 | $176.26M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $383.13M | $-2.10M | $-0.02 | $65.73M |
Q2 2026 • period ending 2026-06-30 • filed 2026-08-05
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
—
P/B
1.50
P/S
1.54
EV/EBITDA
2.94
EV/Sales
1.87
ROE
-19.9%
ROA
-7.5%
Div Yield
0.00%
FCF Yield
25.91%
Debt/Equity
0.60
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$3.05B
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
9.06M
SI % of Float
7.26%
Days to Cover
4.05
Short Vol Ratio
22.5%
Free Float
124.82M
Float %
74.8%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-08-13