The Motley FoolT3·24mo ago
BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
ETF 37.35 DelayedETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
BTC
$37.35
—
Key stats
$37.35
Pre-market
$36.16
-3.19%
- 52-Week Range
- $25.65 – $51.43
- YTD
- -6.01%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 6.01
- Straddle Price
- $3.42
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.38
- Open
- $36.97
- Day Range
- $36.78 – $37.53
- Volume
- 1,972,319
- Prev Close
- $36.48
About
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) ETF
No description available.
- Exchange
- ARCX
- Inception
- 2024-07-31
- Has Options
- Yes
Fund profile
through Sep 2026flows, SEC filings
- Expense ratio
- —
- Assets
- —
- Trailing yield
- —
- Average daily volume
- $61M 30 sessions
- Holdings
- —
- Listed
- Jul 31, 2024 NYSE Arca
Moves with. Bitcoin (100% of its variance, beta 1.00). These factors explain 100% of its daily moves over the last year.
Fund flows
through Sep 2026SEC filings- Sep 2026
- +$13M latest reported month
- Latest 3 months
- +$13M
- Latest 12 months
- —
View as a table
| Month | Net flow |
|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | −$19M |
| Sep 2026 | +$13M |
Net creations and redemptions from the fund's SEC filings, which become public about 60 days after each quarter. Every month since 2 months ago
Similar funds
| Fund | Overlap | Fee | Assets | 1Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBITiShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | — | 0.25% | $68.5B | −24.0% | compare |
| FBTCFidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | — | 0.25% | $14.5B | −24.0% | compare |
| BITOProShares Bitcoin ETF | — | — | $1.7B | −38.3% | compare |
| EZBCFranklin Bitcoin ETF | — | 0.19% | $478M | −24.0% | compare |
| RSSXReturn Stacked U.S. Stocks & Gold/Bitcoin ETF | — | 0.67% | $61M | −2.0% | compare |
The largest other funds in the Bitcoin category.
ETF Profile
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | -- | 4.29% | -6.69% | -1.20% |
| Feb | -- | -- | -16.79% | -15.86% | -16.32% |
| Mar | -- | -- | -4.23% | -1.99% | -3.11% |
| Apr | -0.36% | -- | 10.78% | 12.10% | 7.51% |
| May | 0.17% | -- | 8.18% | -6.40% | 0.65% |
| Jun | -- | -- | 3.20% | -17.91% | -7.36% |
| Jul | -- | 0.00% | 10.80% | 4.49% | 5.10% |
| Aug | -- | -7.47% | -4.24% | 23.56% | 3.95% |
| Sep | -- | 9.32% | 3.16% | 8.14% | 6.87% |
| Oct | -- | 13.32% | -6.59% | -0.24%* | 2.16% |
| Nov | -- | 40.36% | -14.89% | -- | 12.73% |
| Dec | -- | -1.39% | 2.32% | -- | 0.46% |
| Total | -0.19% | 58.65% | -8.48% | -7.69% | 10.57% |
* Only 4 year(s) of data available.
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $36.84
SMA 50: $34.92
SMA 200: $32.57
Current: $37.35
EMA 12: $36.60
EMA 26: $36.19
MACD: 0.4097 | Signal: -0.1749
BULLISH
ADX (14): 21.17
WEAK TREND
+DI: 27.71
−DI: 23.03
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 59.83
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 43.06
Stoch %D: 33.87
Williams %R: -36.09
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $37.95
BB Lower: $35.73
NEUTRAL
OBV: -26,316,687
Vol SMA 20: 1,475,623
Vol ROC: 19.85%
ATR: $0.91
True Range: $1.05
HV 20: 19.8%
HV 30: 33.4%
HV 60: 36.5%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-23T00:00:00 – 2026-10-21T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Here is the comprehensive stock analysis report for BTC:
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: Bullish (Confidence Level: 8/10)
Key Drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a trend regime with MACD indicating bullish momentum.
- Recent news headlines are overwhelmingly positive, highlighting the crypto surge and optimism in moderation.
Primary Risks:
- High volatility, which may lead to increased uncertainty and potential price fluctuations.
- Unusual options activity with high IV rank and expected move, potentially indicating market expectations for a significant price change.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bullish; Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral; Long-term (3-12 months): Bearish
Support/Resistance Levels:
- SMA 20 ($34.25) and EMA 12 ($34.09) provide short-term support.
- Upper Bollinger Band ($36.67) represents potential resistance.
Momentum Signals:
- RSI (14) is at 53.96, indicating a neutral reading with no clear momentum signal.
- MACD crossover above the signal line suggests bullish momentum.
- Bollinger Bands are in a squeeze pattern, which may indicate consolidation before a potential breakout or breakdown.
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20 is 2439404.15, indicating increased volume over the past few weeks.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a decline, suggesting selling pressure, while the Volume Rate of Change suggests increasing volume momentum.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: Positive news headlines dominate, highlighting the crypto surge and optimism in moderation.
Sentiment Assessment: Overall positive sentiment with 6 out of 6 recent headlines having a positive tone.
Catalyst Identification: No specific earnings or events announced; however, the positive news sentiment may drive price movements.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to the market (beta >1.2).
Volatility Regime: Current volatility is higher than historical levels (HV20 48.3%, HV30 40.7%).
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank is high at 100.0%.
- Expected move is $3.42, indicating a significant price change.
- Put/Call volume ratio is 0.62, suggesting bullish sentiment.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: No specific sector data available; however, the crypto market surge may be influencing BTC's performance.
Institutional Activity: Unusual options activity with high IV rank and expected move suggests institutional interest in BTC.
Correlation Analysis: Correlation with SPY is 0.49, indicating a relatively independent movement from the broader market.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- SMA 20 ($34.25) and EMA 12 ($34.09) provide short-term support.
- Upper Bollinger Band ($36.67) represents potential resistance.
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: No specific levels indicated; however, a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band or a breakdown below SMA 20 could trigger significant moves.
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No specific earnings or events announced; however, the positive news sentiment may drive price movements.
Risk Management:
- Set stop-loss levels at $30.72 (SMA 50) and $29.45 (Bollinger Band lower band).
- Consider reducing position size due to high volatility.
Please note that this analysis is based on the provided data, and you should always consider other market factors before making investment decisions.
Generated
News
All BTC news →
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Showing 1–10 of 50
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BTC Options Activity & IV Rank
BTC IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 36.9%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $3.42
7-DTE Move: $3.42
Days to Exp: 30 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 218
Put Volume: 82
P/C Volume: 0.376
BULLISH
Call OI: 9,049
Put OI: 1,228
P/C OI: 0.136
Total OI: 10,277
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $2.12
ATM Put: $1.30
Call %: 5.7%
Put %: 3.5%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 3,245
Chain OI: 37,304
Last Updated: 10/21/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 47th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
47%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.60
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.70
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.83
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.70: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.83: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 54 ATM contracts, 17k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 21 · No data
30 DTE / 10d
100%
+30.5
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 21 · ATM 39.8% / Wing 70.3%
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)6.0LowOct 21
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$3.42Oct 21
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 1.7530
Alpha: -44.44%
Correlation: 0.4953
R-Squared: 24.5%
Stock Volatility: 45.0%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
High volatility - stock moves more than market
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
BTC Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
4 filers$13.72M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $5.43M | 39.61% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $5.18M | 37.73% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $1.69M | 12.33% | 2025-09-30 |
| 4 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $1.42M | 10.33% | 2026-06-30 |
4 filers$6.50M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $3.21M | 49.32% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $2.39M | 36.75% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $658.71K | 10.13% | 2025-09-30 |
| 4 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $246.53K | 3.79% | 2026-06-30 |
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
642.09K
SI % of Float
—
Days to Cover
1.00
Short Vol Ratio
43.9%
Free Float
—
Float %
—
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-21
Constituent Performance
Click any bar to view the full quote for that stock.
Constituents
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Price | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month |
|---|