Heartland Express Inc(HTLD)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $7.00 – $16.64
- YTD
- +23.83%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 38.32
- Straddle Price
- $2.95
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 2.00
- Market Cap
- $0.9B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.96% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.84 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.17% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 8.63% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +142.1pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.1B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -2.9% |
| Book / Price | 84.7% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -11.2% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.20 |
| Quality Score | 3/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $12.73 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $12.10 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 84.6% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.1B |
| Market Cap | $1B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $0.38 | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 14.0× · 4 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $11.07 | 28% | median 8.8× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $21.86 | 36% | median 2.3× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/S | $10.79 | 36% | median 1.1× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $12.73 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $11.97 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew +0.50 |
- Industry (SIC)
- TRUCKING (NO LOCAL) (4213)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $0.9B
Heartland Express Inc, along with its subsidiaries, operates as a short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services provider. It mainly provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload service for shippers across the United States, along with cross-border freight and other transportation services offered through third-party partnerships in Mexico. The group operates under the brand names of Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI (for services within Mexico).
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.22% | 6 |
| Feb | -1.81% | 6 |
| Mar | -4.21% | 6 |
| Apr | -0.95% | 6 |
| May | +8.74% | 6 |
| Jun | -0.16% | 6 |
| Jul | -2.21% | 6 |
| Aug | -2.13% | 6 |
| Sep | -3.35% | 6 |
| Oct | -4.66% | 5 |
| Nov | +7.44% | 5 |
| Dec | +0.80% | 5 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Here is my response as a structured report with the required sections:
Executive Summary
Overall assessment: BEARISH (Confidence level 6/10)
Key drivers and primary risks:
- Overbought RSI reading, indicating potential for short-term pullback
- High volatility, suggesting increased risk
- Recent dividend declarations may not be enough to support current price
Investment thesis: With the stock being overbought in the short term, we believe there is a higher likelihood of a near-term correction. However, the strong dividend payments and positive earnings momentum could support the stock's long-term trajectory.
Recent news sentiment impact: The recent dividend declarations have contributed positively to the overall sentiment, but the lack of any significant earnings or regulatory catalysts may not be enough to drive meaningful price movement in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term: Bearish (based on RSI and MACD)
- Medium-term: Neutral (SMA 50 is below SMA 20, indicating a possible sideways trend)
- Long-term: Bullish (SMA 200 is above SMA 50)
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower band of Bollinger Bands: $12.04
- Middle line: $13.34
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Overbought (>70), suggesting potential for short-term pullback
- MACD signal: Bullish, indicating continued momentum
- Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze, suggesting a possible breakout or mean reversion
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 558076.70 (indicating high volume)
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -2184101.45 (suggesting bearish momentum)
- Volume Rate of Change: 10.75% (high, suggesting increased volatility)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: The recent news headlines have been generally positive, with multiple dividend declarations and participation in a conference.
Sentiment Assessment: Positive sentiment (4/5), driven by the positive earnings momentum and dividend payments.
Catalyst Identification: No significant catalysts announced recently. However, upcoming conferences and potential regulatory changes could impact the stock's trajectory.
Market Narrative: The news headlines have generally been positive, but the lack of any significant earnings or regulatory catalysts may not be enough to drive meaningful price movement in the short term.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Interpretation: High risk (beta >1.30), indicating increased volatility and potential for larger price movements.
Volatility Regime: High volatility (stock moves more than market), suggesting increased risk.
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank: 57.9% (medium, showing historically high volatility)
- Current IV: 250.1% (high, indicating a highly volatile market)
- Expected Move: $2.15 (23 DTE), 7-DTE: $2.15 (indicating potential for continued volatility)
Downside Protection: Support levels at $12.04 and $11.83 could provide some protection against further price declines.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: Heartland Express, Inc. is performing relatively well within its sector, with a higher beta than the broader market.
Institutional Activity: High institutional interest, as evidenced by high volume and open interest in options.
Correlation Analysis: The stock has a moderate correlation (0.39) with the broader market, suggesting some diversification benefits.
Relative Valuation: The stock is trading within its historical range, suggesting it may be fairly valued in the short term.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Lower band of Bollinger Bands: $12.04
- Middle line: $13.34
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Resistance at $14.63 (upper band of Bollinger Bands)
- Support at $11.83 (SMA 50)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No significant catalysts announced recently.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels should be set around $12.04 to manage potential downside risk, with a target for re-entry around $13.34 if the stock pullbacks.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-29 | After-Close | 14.86% | 0.54% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2025-02-03 | After-Close | 16.85% | 3.14% | 0.19x | Within |
| 2025-05-02 | Pre-Market | 10.88% | 6.01% | 0.55x | Within |
| 2025-07-29 | After-Close | 13.24% | 3.45% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2025-11-06 | After-Close | 13.14% | 0.26% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2026-02-09 | After-Close | 8.82% | 0.96% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2026-04-29 | Pre-Market | 14.19% | 2.36% | 0.17x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 38.32
- IV Rank (7D)
- 38.32
- Avg IV
- 127.9%
- Straddle (30D)
- $2.95
- Straddle (7D)
- $2.95
- P/C Volume
- 2.00
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.02
- Correlation (SPY)
- 33.1%
- R²
- 0.11
- Ann. Volatility
- 40.2%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $301.36K | 100.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $3.04K | 100.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | JAMES G PRATT | Director | Award (A) | +5,000 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | David Paul Millis | Director | Sell (S) | −31,402 | $15.67 | -$492.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-12 | DAVID P SPALDING | Director | Buy (P) | +2,000 | $15.69 | $31.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-21 | MICHAEL J GERDIN | Chief Executive Officer | Gift (G) | — | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-21 | Julie J Durr | Gift (G) | +17,897,824 | — | EDGAR | ||
| 2026-05-18 | Christopher Alan Strain | Vice President/CFO/Treasurer | Award (A) | +500 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-18 | KRIS ERIC EICKMAN | VP of Information Technology | Mixed | +333 | $13.30 | -$2.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Kent Daryl Rigdon | Chief Operating Officer | Mixed | +333 | $13.30 | -$2.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Joshua Stefan Helmich | CAO and Secretary | Mixed | +333 | $13.30 | -$2.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-18 | Ann S. Gerdin Revocable Trust | 10%+ Owner | Award (A) | +2,000 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-24 | David Paul Millis | President of Millis Transfer | Mixed | +3,051 | $12.18 | -$22.1K | EDGAR |
| 2025-12-03 | Angela K Janssen | Gift (G) | −40,000,000 | — | EDGAR | ||
| 2025-12-03 | MICHAEL J GERDIN | Chief Executive Officer | Gift (G) | — | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-10-24 | David Paul Millis | President of Millis Transfer | Mixed | +8,018 | $8.37 | -$32.9K | EDGAR |
| 2025-10-03 | Kent Daryl Rigdon | Chief Operating Officer | Tax (F) | −70 | $8.33 | -$583 | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RUSSELL A GERDIN | Chief Executive Officer | 33,228,644 | $376.48M | $0 | 11 | 2011-08-15 |
| 2 | Julie J Durr | 13,943,337 | $157.98M | -$29.73M | 7 | 2026-05-21 | |
| 3 | Ann S Gerdin | 10%+ Owner | 8,948,345 | $101.38M | $29.09M | 16 | 2025-05-14 |
| 4 | Angela K Janssen | 4,503,500 | $51.02M | $28.01M | 7 | 2025-12-03 | |
| 5 | Ann S. Gerdin Revocable Trust | 10%+ Owner | 4,503,500 | $51.02M | -$257.12M | 9 | 2026-05-18 |
| 6 | LAWRENCE D CROUSE | Director | 1,983,841 | $22.48M | -$77.05M | 20 | 2015-12-21 |
| 7 | MICHAEL J GERDIN | Chief Executive Officer | 1,066,406 | $12.08M | -$146.12M | 76 | 2026-05-21 |
| 8 | Steven M Gordon | COO of Subsidiary | 964,089 | $10.92M | -$5.28M | 4 | 2015-06-16 |
| 9 | Scott A. Gordon | CIO of Subsidiary | 652,168 | $7.39M | -$4.25M | 3 | 2015-06-12 |
| 10 | Larry J. Gordon | Director | 304,588 | $3.45M | -$12.84M | 12 | 2023-05-15 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 1.2 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.8B |
| TTM Net Income | $-0.0B |
| TTM EPS | $-0.56 |
| ROE | -2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 |