KOD Kodiak Sciences Inc Common Stock
XNAS
85.75
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
KOD
$85.75
—
Key stats
$85.75
- 52-Week Range
- $13.95 – $104.00
- YTD
- +229.55%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 11.19
- Straddle Price
- $18.25
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.43
- Market Cap
- $5.5B
- Open
- $87.18
- Day Range
- $85.20 – $89.78
- Volume
- 1,123,426
- Prev Close
- $88.12
Fair Value
MODEL: NEUTRAL
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.21% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.77 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 13.63% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 13.66% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | -189.2pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj -25bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -396.1% |
| Book / Price | 1.2% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $52.80 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $74.81 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 199.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.1B |
| Market Cap | $5B |
Peers used for multiples: CELC, GILD, MRNA, NKTR, PRAX, ROIV, TNGX, UTHR
60-Day Conviction
10%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 16, 2026
$87.19
α +1.7%
rank 53%
conviction
83%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 15, 2026
$88.11
α +2.8%
rank 45%
conviction
77%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 13, 2027
$85.94
α +0.2%
rank 41%
conviction
10%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | $5.25 | 13% | median 5.0× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 31.8× · 6 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $52.80 | 55% | stability 85% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $86.67 | 32% | 20 strikes · skew +0.19 |
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (2836) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $5.5B
- Employees
- 124
- List Date
- 2018-10-04
- CIK
- 0001468748
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-12 (After-Close)
- EPS Forecast
- $1 (2 est.)
- Headquarters
- Palo Alto, CA
- Homepage
- https://www.kodiak.com
Kodiak Sciences Inc has developed a new technology platform, the Antibody Biopolymer Conjugate (ABC) platform, for retinal medicines. Its investigational medicine, tarcocimab tedromer (Zenkuda or tarcocimab), is an anti-VEGF therapy built on Kodiak's proprietary ABC platform. Another investigational medicine, KSI-501, is an anti-interleukin 6, or IL-6, VEGF-trap bispecific therapy built on the ABC platform and is being developed for high-prevalence retinal vascular diseases and intended to address the unmet needs of extended durability and targeting disease biology beyond VEGF for differentiat…
Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -8.29% | -34.38% | 3.99% | 26.10% | -25.75% | -12.49% | -8.47% |
| Feb | -1.60% | -86.12% | -21.02% | 36.90% | -29.38% | 11.16% | -15.01% |
| Mar | -15.88% | -12.67% | -3.13% | -12.48% | -28.08% | 39.33% | -5.49% |
| Apr | 10.76% | -23.60% | -19.41% | -27.87% | 70.31% | 1.57% | 1.96% |
| May | -28.38% | 12.42% | 30.62% | -9.92% | -24.28% | -16.49% | -6.00% |
| Jun | 17.39% | 1.46% | 8.66% | -27.47% | 3.61% | 5.55% | 1.53% |
| Jul | -12.31% | 28.39% | -56.98% | 22.78% | 74.87% | 12.93% | 11.61% |
| Aug | 14.90% | 4.82% | -26.67% | -13.15% | 35.94% | -6.23% | 1.60% |
| Sep | -0.90% | -26.91% | -25.00% | 7.85% | 89.91% | 155.80% | 33.46% |
| Oct | 20.71% | -5.53% | -13.69% | 46.15% | 15.01% | -12.91%* | 8.29% |
| Nov | -27.10% | 4.09% | 57.14% | 73.70% | 23.81% | -- | 26.33% |
| Dec | -3.56% | -1.78% | 18.29% | 33.92% | 27.44% | -- | 14.86% |
| Total | -40.10% | -93.41% | -65.46% | 178.39% | 312.79% | 186.26% | 79.74% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $77.46
SMA 50: $53.61
SMA 200: $38.83
Current: $85.75
EMA 12: $86.00
EMA 26: $73.82
MACD: 12.1808 | Signal: -1.2548
BULLISH
ADX (14): 47.66
STRONG TREND
+DI: 34.51
−DI: 20.41
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 60.94
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 52.98
Stoch %D: 68.88
Williams %R: -73.18
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $129.88
BB Lower: $25.04
NEUTRAL
OBV: 77,092,671
Vol SMA 20: 3,970,290
Vol ROC: -58.07%
ATR: $7.34
True Range: $4.58
HV 20: 372.8%
HV 30: 305.3%
HV 60: 219.1%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis
KODIAK SCIENCES (KOD) - COMPREHENSIVE STOCK ANALYSIS REPORT
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH | Confidence Level: 7/10
Key Drivers:
- Extreme overbought technical conditions (RSI 89.49) with bearish MACD divergence
- Massive volatility spike (HV20: 360.9%) suggesting acute price dislocation
- Put/call volume ratio of 2.61 indicating strong institutional hedging/bearish positioning
- Current price ($88.10) dramatically elevated above all moving averages (20-SMA: $36.71, 50-SMA: $39.36)
Primary Risks:
- Potential mean reversion to moving average support levels
- IV Rank at 88.2% suggests limited upside volatility expansion
- Negative recent analyst sentiment (Zacks highlighted concerns 2026-09-23)
- Extreme technical extremes typically precede consolidation or pullback
Investment Thesis: KOD exhibits classic bubble characteristics with price 140% above 20-day moving average while momentum indicators flash exhaustion signals. The bearish MACD divergence combined with 2.61 put/call volume ratio suggests professional traders are hedging/shorting into strength. A meaningful correction toward $50-60 range represents significant downside risk unless positive clinical/regulatory catalysts emerge immediately.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Mixed sentiment profile with recent negative analyst commentary (Sept 23, 2026) contrasting against positive pipeline development headlines from mid-2026 and early 2025. The stock appears to have run significantly higher than fundamental news progression would support—a classic sign of speculative momentum exhaustion.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
| Timeframe | Direction | Analysis | |-----------|-----------|----------| | Short-term (1-4 weeks) | BEARISH | Price at $88.10 is 140% above 20-SMA ($36.71). Extreme deviation suggests imminent mean reversion. | | Medium-term (1-3 months) | MIXED | Price above 50-SMA ($39.36) and 200-SMA ($34.20) but with deteriorating momentum. | | Long-term (3-12 months) | NEUTRAL/BEARISH | Structural trend unclear; current levels appear to be a speculative spike rather than fundamental trend. |
Support/Resistance Levels
Critical Price Levels to Monitor:
| Level | Type | Significance | |-------|------|--------------| | $88.10 | Current Price | Extreme overbought territory | | $60.55 | Bollinger Upper Band | Technical overbought threshold; first resistance | | $50-55 | Psychological/MA Confluence | Initial support area; 200-SMA nearby | | $39.36 | 50-SMA | Key moving average support | | $36.71 | 20-SMA | Primary moving average support | | $34.20 | 200-SMA | Long-term trend support | | $12.86 | Bollinger Lower Band | Extreme downside support (unlikely unless catastrophic event) |
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Bullish Breakout Above: $95-100 (but requires momentum confirmation; currently lacking)
- Bearish Breakdown Below: $60-65 (would confirm mean reversion; opens path to $40-50)
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 89.49 — EXTREME OVERBOUGHT ALERT
- Interpretation: Severely overbought territory (normal overbought threshold: >70)
- Historical context: RSI >85 typically precedes pullback or consolidation within 3-7 trading sessions
- Signal strength: STRONG SELL signal; indicates exhaustion of buying momentum
- Risk: Countertrend rallies can occur even from extreme RSI, but they are unsustainable
MACD: 2.77 / Signal Line: 3.66 / Histogram: -0.89 — BEARISH DIVERGENCE
- Current Status: BEARISH CROSSOVER in progress (MACD below signal line)
- Interpretation: Momentum is rolling over despite price remaining at highs—classic divergence
- Significance: Suggests uptrend momentum peaked; downside acceleration likely
- Timeline: Bearish MACD crossovers often precede price weakness within 3-10 trading days
Stochastic Oscillators:
- %K: 61.68 / %D: 41.72 — Mid-range readings but sloping downward
- Williams %R: -6.56 (near -0 = overbought)
- Interpretation: Momentum indicators rolling over despite price strength
Bollinger Bands:
- Current Position: Price at $88.10 vs Upper Band $60.55
- Signal: OVERBOUGHT — price is 27.54 points above upper band
- Width: 129.92 (extremely wide) indicates high volatility regime
- Interpretation: Price well outside normal trading range; mean reversion likely
Momentum Synthesis: All momentum indicators flash BEARISH signals. This is a 7/10 confluence of overbought conditions—extremely rare alignment suggesting high probability of pullback.
Volume Analysis
Volume Metrics:
- 20-Day Average Volume: 2,363,062 shares
- Volume Rate of Change: +5,480.62% — EXTRAORDINARY volume spike
- On-Balance Volume: 65,402,886.96 (cumulative buying pressure, now potentially reversing)
Interpretation:
- Extreme volume spike (5,480% ROC) indicates manic buying phase or institutional repositioning
- Such volume spikes are unsustainable and typically mark climactic moves
- OBV remains elevated but momentum is deteriorating (per MACD)—classic signs of volume-driven spike nearing exhaustion
- Institutional Interest Signal: The 2.61 put/call volume ratio suggests large institutional positions are hedging bullish exposure, indicating skepticism at current levels despite upside move
Volume Profile Assessment: Volume surge appears speculative rather than foundational, as it accompanies technical exhaustion rather than breakout confirmation.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary (Last 10 Articles)
| Date | Headline | Sentiment | Relevance | |------|----------|-----------|-----------| | 2026-09-23 | Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights KOD (among others) | NEGATIVE | Recent analyst concern flagged | | 2026-07-03 | Diabetic Retinopathy Pipeline: 50+ Companies, 55+ Drugs | POSITIVE | KOD positioned in growing pipeline | | 2026-04-17 | Russell 2000 Top Gainers | NEUTRAL | Small-cap sector momentum (KOD participated) | | 2025-09-25 | KOD Among Big Stocks Moving Higher | POSITIVE | Prior momentum confirmation | | 2025-01-10 | Diabetic Retinopathy Clinical Trials Review | POSITIVE | Market growth validation | | 2024-06-20 | Should You Hold KOD? | NEUTRAL | Historical valuation question |
Sentiment Assessment
Aggregate Sentiment: MIXED-to-NEGATIVE (slightly bearish bias)
- Positive Signals: Pipeline development headlines (2026-07-03, 2025-01-10) confirm market growth in diabetic retinopathy space; KOD benefits from sector tailwinds
- Negative Signals: Most recent headline (2026-09-23) from Zacks carries negative sentiment; analyst explicitly highlighted KOD among underperformers
- Neutral Context: Earlier positive momentum headlines (April 2026, Sept 2025) appear dated relative to current extreme valuations
Critical Observation: News sentiment does NOT support current $88.10 price level. The pipeline positive headlines are months old and don't explain a 140% move above 20-SMA. Current rally appears driven by technical momentum/speculative fervor rather than fundamental catalysts.
Catalyst Identification
Upcoming Catalysts:
| Catalyst | Timing | Impact Potential | |----------|--------|-------------------| | Clinical Trial Data Readouts | Unknown (not disclosed) | HIGH - Binary event risk | | FDA Regulatory Approvals | Unknown | HIGH - Binary event risk | | Next Earnings Release | Unknown (no data provided) | MEDIUM-HIGH | | Pipeline Competitor Actions | Ongoing | MEDIUM
Generated
News
All KOD news →
The biotech is developing innovative therapies for people with eye diseases.
The trial tested two experimental eye drugs, Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted, for treating wet age-related macular degeneration.
Showing 1–10 of 14
Page 1 of 2
Earnings History
17 of 17 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
30.78%
Avg Actual Move
8.39%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-01 | After-Close | 17.50% | 7.14% | 0.41x | Within |
| 2021-05-10 | After-Close | 12.10% | 7.59% | 0.63x | Within |
| 2021-11-09 | After-Close | 12.57% | 5.14% | 0.41x | Within |
| 2022-02-23 | After-Close | 29.41% | 7.00% | 0.24x | Within |
| 2022-05-10 | After-Close | 22.02% | 7.61% | 0.35x | Within |
| 2022-08-09 | After-Close | 21.70% | 14.47% | 0.67x | Within |
| 2022-11-09 | After-Close | 10.40% | 5.79% | 0.56x | Within |
| 2023-05-15 | After-Close | 11.01% | 10.44% | 0.95x | Within |
| 2023-07-24 | After-Close | 36.25% | 7.98% | 0.22x | Within |
| 2024-03-28 | After-Close | 17.11% | 15.40% | 0.90x | Within |
| 2024-08-14 | After-Close | 29.41% | 1.57% | 0.05x | Within |
| 2024-11-14 | After-Close | 10.38% | 4.34% | 0.42x | Within |
| 2025-03-27 | After-Close | 199.35% | 4.90% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2025-05-14 | After-Close | 24.75% | 15.48% | 0.63x | Within |
| 2025-08-13 | After-Close | 29.87% | 16.47% | 0.55x | Within |
| 2025-11-13 | After-Close | 24.51% | 3.39% | 0.14x | Within |
| 2026-08-12 | After-Close | 14.92% | 7.90% | 0.53x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
KOD Options Activity & IV Rank
KOD IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 85.8%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $18.25
7-DTE Move: $2.73
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 3,388
Put Volume: 1,459
P/C Volume: 0.431
BULLISH
Call OI: 3,836
Put OI: 4,767
P/C OI: 1.243
Total OI: 8,603
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $9.75
ATM Put: $8.50
Call %: 11.4%
Put %: 9.9%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 21,347
Chain OI: 101,395
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
LOW γ vs HISTORY
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 1st percentile of this name's own daily history, near the low end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
1%
vs own history
GEX tilt
-0.40
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.44
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.45
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.44: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.45: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 25 ATM contracts, 7k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 16 · No data
30 DTE / 10d
29%
+2.3
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 16 · ATM 86.8% / Wing 89.1%
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)11.2LowOct 16
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$18.25Oct 16
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.0228
Alpha: 300.05%
Correlation: 0.0014
R-Squared: 0.0%
Stock Volatility: 208.1%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own KOD
5 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICONIQ Capital Family office | $49.3M | #11 of 76 | 0.0% | 13F | |
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $7.4M | #1225 of 3138 | -35.7% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $6.1M | #1934 of 6285 | -81.9% | 13F | |
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $3.8M | #1071 of 1945 | -78.8% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $1.2M | #2825 of 3716 | +118.4% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
KOD Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 57,948,961 (as of 2026-06-30)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
10 filers$38.31M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $9.35M | 24.40% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Ikarian Capital, LLC | $8.48M | 22.14% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $7.66M | 20.01% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $4.27M | 11.14% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Caption Management, LLC | $3.19M | 8.32% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $2.45M | 6.39% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $1.71M | 4.45% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $592.19K | 1.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $401.29K | 1.05% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Persistent Asset Partners Ltd | $215.92K | 0.56% | 2026-06-30 |
7 filers$15.73M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $5.72M | 36.39% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $3.88M | 24.70% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $3.63M | 23.09% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Caption Management, LLC | $1.30M | 8.25% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $728.55K | 4.63% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Persistent Asset Partners Ltd | $344.93K | 2.19% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $116.88K | 0.74% | 2026-06-30 |
KOD Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-30Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Baker Bros. Advisors (GP) LLC | Director | Buy (P) | +4,293,552 | $88.59 | $380.39M | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-30 | Felix Baker | Director | Buy (P) | +4,847,040 | $72.57 | $351.75M | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-30 | Julian Baker | Director | Buy (P) | +2,509,938 | $83.58 | $209.78M | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-29 | Victor Perlroth | Chairman and CEO | Exer (M) | +1,280,524 | $4.20 | $5.38M | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-17 | John A. Borgeson | Chief Financial Officer | Grant (A) | +66,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-17 | Victor Perlroth | Chairman and CEO | Grant (A) | +100,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-02 | Richard S Levy | Director | Grant (A) | +17,731 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-02 | Taiyin Yang | Director | Grant (A) | +17,731 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-02 | Bassil I Dahiyat | Director | Grant (A) | +17,731 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-02 | Charles A Bancroft | Director | Grant (A) | +17,731 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-02 | Robert Profusek | Director | Grant (A) | +17,731 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-07-02 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | Director | Grant (A) | +212,772 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-05 | John A. Borgeson | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | — | $17.57 | -$991.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-16 | John A. Borgeson | Chief Financial Officer | Exer (M) | +28,614 | $1.04 | $29.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-02 | John A. Borgeson | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | — | $20.48 | -$1.17M | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
KOD Insider Holdings
9 insiders · @ $85.75
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker Bros. Advisors (GP) LLC | Director | 19,962,778 | $1.71B | $782.40M | 7 | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | Felix Baker | Director | 18,852,329 | $1.62B | $787.86M | 6 | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | 667, L.P. | Director | 18,358,772 | $1.57B | $650.35M | 7 | 2025-12-19 |
| 4 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | Director | 15,316,021 | $1.31B | $106.09M | 5 | 2026-07-02 |
| 5 | Victor Perlroth | Chairman and CEO | 3,051,718 | $261.68M | -$12.26M | 17 | 2026-09-29 |
| 6 | Julian Baker | Director | 1,611,909 | $138.22M | $777.82M | 5 | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | John A. Borgeson | Chief Financial Officer | 211,930 | $18.17M | -$3.25M | 25 | 2026-07-17 |
| 8 | Robert Profusek | Director | 10,000 | $857.5K | $100.0K | 10 | 2026-07-02 |
| 9 | Richard S Levy | Director | 250 | $21.4K | $44.3K | 10 | 2026-07-02 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
KOD Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-06-04
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
0 filings
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | JOHN BORGESON | Officer | 30,000 | $1.02M | 2026-06-04 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-02 | JOHN BORGESON | Officer | 30,000 | $1.28M | 2026-04-02 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
52 ETFs hold KOD
25 shown · $550.27M total exposure · 0.12% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $122.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | XBI State Street® SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 1.16% | $119.6M | $10.3B | 2026-10-15 |
| 3 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.12% | $90.3M | $75.2B | 2026-10-15 |
| 4 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $42.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 5 | IBB iShares Biotechnology ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.36% | $39.4M | $10.5B | 2026-10-15 |
| 6 | IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.24% | $32.4M | $13.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 7 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.12% | $21.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 8 | FESM Fidelity Enhanced Small Cap Core ETF | Fidelity | 0.21% | $13.7M | $6.6B | 2026-10-15 |
| 9 | DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.03% | $10.9M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 10 | VHT Vanguard Health Care ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $9.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 11 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.03% | $7.1M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 12 | DWAS Invesco Dorsey Wright SmallCap Momentum ETF | Nport | 1.37% | $5.7M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 13 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $5.4M | $96.0B | 2026-10-15 |
| 14 | LABU Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X ETF | Direxion | 0.85% | $4.9M | — | 2026-10-16 |
| 15 | VTWG Vanguard Russell 2000 Growth ETF | Vanguard | 0.24% | $4.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 16 | VFMO Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor ETF | Vanguard | 0.21% | $4.0M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 17 | TMSL T. Rowe Price Small-Mid Cap ETF | Nport | 0.12% | $3.2M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | USVM VictoryShares US Small Mid Cap Value Momentum ETF | Nport | 0.16% | $2.8M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 19 | PRFZ Invesco RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETF | Nport | 0.07% | $2.1M | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 20 | SMLF iShares U.S. Small-Cap Equity Factor ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.04% | $1.8M | $4.1B | 2026-10-15 |
| 21 | RSSL Global X Russell 2000 ETF | Global X | 0.12% | $1.6M | — | 2026-10-16 |
| 22 | GSSC Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF | Goldman | 0.15% | $1.6M | $1.0B | 2026-10-15 |
| 23 | ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF | Fidelity | 0.01% | $1.4M | $10.9B | 2026-10-15 |
| 24 | FHLC Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF | Fidelity | 0.04% | $1.4M | $3.8B | 2026-10-15 |
| 25 | IWV iShares Russell 3000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $1.3M | $20.3B | 2026-10-15 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
—
TTM Diluted EPS
$-4.19
TTM Revenue
$0.00
TTM Net Income
$-241.99M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$-158.50M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $0.00 | $-65.64M | $-1.05 | $-46.24M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | — | $-58.16M | $-0.94 | $-40.01M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | — | $-56.74M | $-1.04 | $-39.38M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | — | $-61.46M | $-1.16 | $-32.88M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $0.00 | $-54.31M | $-1.03 | $-34.67M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | — | $-57.46M | $-1.09 | $-29.08M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | — | $-44.10M | $-0.84 | $-30.07M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | — | $-43.95M | $-0.84 | $-21.16M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | — | $-45.12M | $-0.86 | $-26.49M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | — | $-43.04M | $-0.82 | $-39.60M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | — | $-59.52M | $-1.13 | $-32.24M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | — | $-50.01M | $-0.95 | $-32.76M |
Q2 2026 • period ending 2026-06-30 • filed 2026-08-13
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
—
P/B
81.33
P/S
—
EV/EBITDA
—
EV/Sales
—
ROE
-396.1%
ROA
-94.2%
Div Yield
0.00%
FCF Yield
-3.19%
Debt/Equity
0.00
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$4.97B
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
9.38M
SI % of Float
31.68%
Days to Cover
1.80
Short Vol Ratio
69.7%
Free Float
29.60M
Float %
47.1%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-09-30