WMG Warner Music Group Corp.
XNAS
32.30
+0.00%
After hours
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
What changed
Recent filings, trades and moves- 52-Week Range
- $23.34 – $35.42
- YTD
- +6.11%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 31.91
- Straddle Price
- $3.67
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.32
- Market Cap
- $16.6B
- Open
- $32.34
- Day Range
- $31.94 – $32.73
- Volume
- 3,092,992
- Prev Close
- $31.67
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.88% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.02 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.51% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.07% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +16.1pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 23.8% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -0.2% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.8B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 46.2% |
| Book / Price | 5.8% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 45.8% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 11.4% |
| Debt / Equity | 4.94 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +10.3% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $29.37 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $31.20 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 8.8% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $4.1B |
| Market Cap | $17B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $13.41 | 17% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $9.03 | 13% | |
| Peer P/E | $16.28 | 8% | median 21.6× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $45.72 | 8% | median 17.6× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/B | $22.06 | 2% | median 12.1× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/S | $47.19 | 5% | median 3.4× · 7 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $29.37 | 34% | stability 100% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $31.34 | 14% | 17 strikes · skew +0.20 |
- Industry (SIC)
- SERVICES-AMUSEMENT & RECREATION SERVICES (7900) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $16.6B
- Employees
- 5,500
- List Date
- 2020-06-03
- CIK
- 0001319161
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-19 (Pre-Market)
- EPS Forecast
- $0.36
- Headquarters
- New York, NY
- Homepage
- https://www.wmg.com
Warner Music is the third-largest of the three major record companies. Recorded music accounts for most of the firm's revenue, with the segment housing notable record labels including Atlantic Records, Warner Records, Elektra Records. Some of the most successful current artists signed to record deals with Warner include Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Cardi B, and Dua Lipa. Warner's remaining revenue comes from its publishing business, where Warner Chappell represents more than 180,000 songwriters and composers, some of whom are also Warner recording artists but many of whom are not recording artists …
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -4.83% | -1.05% | 3.11% | 1.87% | 1.60% | -1.51% | -0.14% |
| Feb | -0.08% | -18.52% | -14.68% | -5.93% | 5.64% | -5.30% | -6.48% |
| Mar | -8.23% | 5.99% | 6.92% | -6.93% | -5.63% | -10.29% | -3.03% |
| Apr | 11.58% | -19.50% | -9.21% | -0.24% | -2.78% | 9.74% | -1.74% |
| May | -6.19% | -2.27% | -21.31% | -10.92% | -12.41% | 12.72% | -6.73% |
| Jun | 1.44% | -16.95% | 6.97% | -1.51% | 4.89% | -13.04% | -3.03% |
| Jul | 4.86% | 22.10% | 20.97% | -0.79% | 5.14% | -6.55% | 7.62% |
| Aug | 2.70% | -14.03% | 5.92% | -1.45% | 16.49% | 12.39% | 3.67% |
| Sep | 11.86% | -14.76% | -6.69% | 12.03% | 2.87% | -1.29% | 0.67% |
| Oct | 10.79% | 7.79% | 0.68% | 1.82% | -6.66% | 13.20% | 4.60% |
| Nov | -11.34% | 28.45% | 5.35% | 0.96% | -8.37% | 4.78%* | 3.30% |
| Dec | 1.24% | 2.37% | 3.47% | -3.64% | 8.66% | -- | 2.42% |
| Total | 11.00% | -29.19% | -5.68% | -15.30% | 5.93% | 10.68% | -3.76% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a consolidation phase with neutral momentum signals
- Low volatility indicates reduced market risk, but options activity shows bearish sentiment
- Recent news headlines unavailable, limiting narrative impact
Primary Risks:
- Potential for mean reversion from overbought RSI levels
- Bearish options sentiment may persist if earnings disappoint
Investment Thesis: WMG appears to be in a consolidation phase, with neutral momentum signals and low volatility. While recent news is lacking, the stock's relatively stable performance suggests it may be a defensive play during market uncertainty.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: N/A (no recent news available)
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term: NEUTRAL (SMA 20, SMA 50, and EMA 12 converge)
- Medium-term: BULLISH (SMA 200 and EMA 26 indicate a longer-term uptrend)
- Long-term: BEARISH (MACD bearish crossover)
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Upper resistance: $30.20 (Bollinger Bands upper band)
- Middle support: $28.52 (SMA 20 and Bollinger Bands middle band)
- Lower support: $26.85 (Bollinger Bands lower band)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI (14): 58.81 (neutral)
- MACD: bearish crossover
- Bollinger Bands: neutral signal
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 2477750.35 (no clear trends)
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): 4482006.00 (no significant changes)
- Volume Rate of Change: -64.73% (decreasing volume)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: N/A (no recent news available)
Sentiment Assessment: N/A (no recent news available)
Catalyst Identification: None
Market Narrative: N/A (no recent news available)
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Assessment:
- Beta: 0.51 (low volatility, less than market)
- Alpha: -0.08 (alpha relative to market)
- Correlation: 0.37 (moderate correlation with market)
Volatility Regime: Low (stock moves less than market)
Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: 25.2% (Medium - historically high volatility)
- Current IV: 53.9%
- Expected Move: $1.65 (21 DTE), 7-DTE: $1.65
- Volume Flow: Bearish sentiment (138 calls vs 671 puts)
- Open Interest: Bearish bias (12,873 calls vs 1,676 puts)
Downside Protection:
- Support levels: $28.52 and $26.85
- Risk management considerations: Stop-loss at $27.50 or lower
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: NEUTRAL (WMG performance aligned with sector)
Institutional Activity: MODERATE (volume patterns suggest institutional interest, but no clear trends)
Correlation Analysis: 0.37 (moderate correlation with market)
Relative Valuation: DEFENSIVE (position within trading range)
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- $30.20 (upper resistance)
- $28.52 (middle support)
- $26.85 (lower support)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- $31.00 (potential breakout level)
- $27.50 (potential breakdown level)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: None
Risk Management: Stop-loss at $27.50 or lower, consider position sizing adjustments based on market conditions.
Note: This analysis focuses on the provided data and does not include any buy/sell advice. The reader should assess their individual risk tolerance and market context before making investment decisions.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-01 | After-Close | 10.90% | 6.96% | 0.64x | Within |
| 2021-05-04 | After-Close | 4.93% | 1.14% | 0.23x | Within |
| 2021-08-03 | After-Close | 4.02% | 2.65% | 0.66x | Within |
| 2021-11-15 | After-Close | 2.76% | 3.77% | 1.37x | Exceeded |
| 2022-02-08 | After-Close | 7.21% | 2.15% | 0.30x | Within |
| 2022-05-10 | After-Close | 5.70% | 1.51% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2022-08-09 | After-Close | 4.27% | 1.32% | 0.31x | Within |
| 2022-11-22 | After-Close | 9.17% | 3.54% | 0.39x | Within |
| 2023-02-09 | After-Close | 2.31% | 2.17% | 0.94x | Within |
| 2023-05-09 | After-Close | 12.23% | 1.79% | 0.15x | Within |
| 2023-08-08 | After-Close | 6.72% | 1.07% | 0.16x | Within |
| 2023-11-16 | After-Close | 2.08% | 1.82% | 0.88x | Within |
| 2024-02-07 | After-Close | 6.63% | 2.49% | 0.38x | Within |
| 2024-08-07 | After-Close | 5.58% | 0.87% | 0.16x | Within |
| 2024-11-21 | After-Close | 7.22% | 2.15% | 0.30x | Within |
| 2025-02-06 | After-Close | 3.31% | 3.06% | 0.92x | Within |
| 2025-05-08 | Pre-Market | 6.81% | 7.94% | 1.17x | Exceeded |
| 2025-08-07 | Pre-Market | 7.99% | 3.70% | 0.46x | Within |
| 2025-11-20 | After-Close | 2.69% | 3.37% | 1.25x | Exceeded |
| 2026-02-05 | After-Close | 7.89% | 3.05% | 0.39x | Within |
| 2026-05-07 | After-Close | 8.05% | 7.47% | 0.93x | Within |
| 2026-08-05 | After-Close | 16.06% | 1.69% | 0.11x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
WMG Options Activity & IV Rank
WMG IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Options Flow · All expiries
ATM Options Pricing
Chain Summary
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Calendars: the long leg is valued at the short leg’s expiration (Black-Scholes at its current IV) across the range of prices the short leg’s IV implies, giving the best-case profit (R/R = that over the debit) and P(profit).
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Scanning bull put, bear call, iron condor and calendar spreads…
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 88th percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
IV(call wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsThe same measure on the upside: how the OTM call is priced against the at-the-money strike.
- Negative (typical) — calls trade below ATM for most stocks and indices, so the sign alone says little.
- Percentile vs own history: high = upside calls unusually rich for this name (squeezes, takeover talk, commodity supply scares); low = calls cheaper than usual.
Put or call vs ATM tells you how expensive that tail is. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Loading the implied volatility surface…
Loading the implied volatility smile…
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $51.8M | #318 of 1945 | -23.2% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $43.5M | #683 of 3716 | -52.5% | 13F | |
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $32.1M | #503 of 3138 | -22.0% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $25.2M | #1021 of 6285 | -69.7% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $16.9M | #538 of 4729 | +52698.7% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
WMG Institutional Ownership (13F)
Filings for 2026-06-30 · 143 already for 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $15.29M | 29.41% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $15.22M | 29.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Goldman Sachs Group Inc Custodian | $9.57M | 18.40% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $6.53M | 12.56% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $2.77M | 5.33% | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | PEAK6 LLC | $1.15M | 2.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | SIG BROKERAGE, LP | $622.61K | 1.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $498.09K | 0.96% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Walleye Trading LLC | $270.70K | 0.52% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $74.55K | 0.14% | 2026-09-30 |
| 11 | Walleye Capital LLC | $5.41K | 0.01% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $106.18M | 99.39% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $477.65K | 0.45% | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | Walleye Trading LLC | $102.87K | 0.10% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $70.38K | 0.07% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $5.52K | <0.01% | 2026-09-30 |
WMG Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-03| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Noreena Hertz | Director | Award (A) | +45 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-09-03 | Nancy Dubuc | Director | Award (A) | +45 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-09-03 | Cecelia Kurzman | Director | Award (A) | +84 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-09-03 | Michael Lynton | Director | Award (A) | +122 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-09-03 | Mathias Dopfner | Director | Award (A) | +45 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-09-03 | Ynon Kreiz | Director | Award (A) | +45 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Nancy Dubuc | Director | Award (A) | +38 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Mathias Dopfner | Director | Award (A) | +38 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Cecelia Kurzman | Director | Award (A) | +38 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Michael Lynton | Director | Award (A) | +56 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Noreena Hertz | Director | Award (A) | +38 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-04 | Ynon Kreiz | Director | Award (A) | +38 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Armin Zerza | COO & CFO | Gift (G) | −27,521 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-18 | Armin Zerza | COO & CFO | Mixed Grant +209,132 · Tax −27,064 |
+182,068 | $33.60 | -$909.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-20 | Valentin Blavatnik | Director | Other (J) | +280,000 RSU | — | EDGAR |
WMG Insider Holdings
20 insiders · @ $32.45| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Access Industries Holdings LLC | 1,518,536 | $49.28M | -$1.37B | 2 | 2024-12-23 | |
| 2 | Robert Kyncl | CEO | 774,379 | $25.13M | $0 | 3 | 2026-01-06 |
| 3 | Armin Zerza | COO & CFO | 436,187 | $14.15M | $1.01M | 4 | 2026-05-26 |
| 4 | Lincoln E Benet | Director | 242,360 | $7.86M | -$9.32M | 11 | 2024-12-23 |
| 5 | Guy Moot | Co-Chair & CEO Warner Chappell | 242,206 | $7.86M | $0 | 6 | 2026-01-06 |
| 6 | Carianne Marshall | Co-Chair & COO Warner Chappell | 242,206 | $7.86M | $0 | 6 | 2026-01-06 |
| 7 | Carletta Higginson | EVP, Chief Digital Officer | 200,596 | $6.51M | $0 | 3 | 2026-01-06 |
| 8 | Bryan Castellani | Chief Financial Officer | 145,244 | $4.71M | $0 | 3 | 2025-01-07 |
| 9 | Paul M Robinson | EVP & General Counsel | 104,082 | $3.38M | $0 | 6 | 2026-01-06 |
| 10 | Valentin Blavatnik | Director | 104,074 | $3.38M | -$1.00M | 4 | 2026-04-20 |
WMG Board & Officers
As of SEC filings through Sep 3, 2026Directors 11
- Donald Wagner · since Jun 2, 2020
- Lincoln E Benet · since Jun 2, 2020
- Mathias Dopfner · since Jun 2, 2020
- Michael Lynton · since Jun 2, 2020
- Noreena Hertz · since Jun 2, 2020
- Ynon Kreiz · since Jun 2, 2020
- Cecelia Kurzman · since Oct 1, 2020
- Nancy Dubuc · since Jul 13, 2021
- Len Blavatnik · listed since Mar 2023
- Valentin Blavatnik · since Apr 27, 2023
- Robert Kyncl · listed since Oct 2025
Officers 9
- Guy Moot · Co-Chair & CEO Warner Chappell · since Jun 2, 2020
- Robert Kyncl · CEO · since Jan 1, 2023
- Louis Dickler · Acting CFO & Corp. Contr. · since Nov 11, 2021
- Thomas Charles Corson · Chief Operating Officer · since Jul 31, 2026
- James Steven · EVP, Chief Comm. Officer · since Jun 2, 2020
- Maria Osherova · EVP, Chief Human Res. Officer · since Jun 2, 2020
- Carletta Higginson · EVP, Chief Digital Officer · since Oct 16, 2023
- Hannah Jasmine Karp · EVP, Chief Comm. Officer · since Jan 26, 2026
- Paul M Robinson · EVP & General Counsel · listed since Jan 2023
10% owners 8
- AI Entertainment Holdings LLC (entity) · since Jun 2, 2020
- AIBFF, Inc. (entity) · listed since Apr 2026
- Access Industries Core Holdings LLC (entity) · listed since Apr 2026
- Access Industries Holdings LLC (entity) · listed since Apr 2026
- Access Industries Management, LLC (entity) · listed since Apr 2026
- Access Industries, LLC (entity) · listed since Apr 2026
- Entertainment Holdings II LLC (entity) · since Mar 6, 2023
- Len Blavatnik · listed since Apr 2026
Changes in the last 10 years (49)
| Jul 31, 2026 | Thomas Charles Corson became Chief Operating Officer |
| Jul 31, 2026 | The company announced the departure of Armin Zerza as COO & CFO in an SEC filing |
| May 18, 2026 | Armin Zerza listed as COO & CFO (previously Chief Financial Officer) in SEC filings |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Len Blavatnik first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Access Industries, LLC first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Access Industries Management, LLC first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Access Industries Holdings LLC first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Access Industries Core Holdings LLC first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Apr 20, 2026 | AIBFF, Inc. first listed as a 10% owner in an SEC filing |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Hannah Jasmine Karp became EVP, Chief Comm. Officer |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Robert Kyncl first listed as a director in an SEC filing |
| May 5, 2025 | Armin Zerza became Chief Financial Officer |
| Apr 14, 2025 | The company announced the departure of Bryan Castellani as Chief Financial Officer in an SEC filing |
| Oct 16, 2023 | Carletta Higginson became EVP, Chief Digital Officer |
| Oct 16, 2023 | Bryan Castellani became Chief Financial Officer |
| Apr 27, 2023 | Valentin Blavatnik became a director |
| Mar 16, 2023 | Len Blavatnik first listed as a director in an SEC filing |
| Mar 6, 2023 | Entertainment Holdings II LLC became a 10% owner |
| Jan 31, 2023 | The company announced the departure of Stephen Forbes Cooper from the board in an SEC filing |
| Jan 12, 2023 | Timothy Matusch became EVP Strategy & Operations |
| Jan 6, 2023 | Paul M Robinson listed as EVP & General Counsel (previously EVP, General Counsel & Sec.) in SEC filings |
| Jan 1, 2023 | Robert Kyncl became CEO |
| Sep 21, 2022 | The company announced the departure of Stephen Forbes Cooper as CEO in an SEC filing |
| Nov 11, 2021 | Louis Dickler became Acting CFO & Corp. Contr. |
| Jul 13, 2021 | Nancy Dubuc became a director |
| Mar 18, 2021 | Max Lousada no longer listed as a director in SEC filings |
| Oct 1, 2020 | Cecelia Kurzman became a director |
| Jun 3, 2020 | Tencent Holdings Ltd became a 10% owner |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Ynon Kreiz became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Thomas H Lee first listed as a director in an SEC filing |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Stephen Forbes Cooper became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Stephen Forbes Cooper became CEO |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Paul M Robinson listed as EVP, General Counsel & Sec. (previously EVP and General Counsel) in SEC filings |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Oana Ruxandra became CDO & EVP Business Dev. |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Noreena Hertz became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Michael Lynton became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Max Lousada became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Max Lousada became CEO, Recorded Music |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Mathias Dopfner became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Maria Osherova became EVP, Chief Human Res. Officer |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Lincoln E Benet became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Len Blavatnik no longer listed as a director in SEC filings |
| Jun 2, 2020 | James Steven became EVP, Chief Comm. Officer |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Guy Moot became Co-Chair & CEO Warner Chappell |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Eric Levin became EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Donald Wagner became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Carianne Marshall became Co-Chair & COO Warner Chappell |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Alex Blavatnik became a director |
| Jun 2, 2020 | AI Entertainment Holdings LLC became a 10% owner |
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Not reported recently (8)
- Carianne Marshall · Last reported as Co-Chair & COO Warner Chappell in an SEC filing dated Jan 6, 2026
- Timothy Matusch · Last reported as EVP Strategy & Operations in an SEC filing dated Apr 4, 2025
- Max Lousada · Last reported as CEO, Recorded Music in an SEC filing dated Sep 13, 2024
- Alex Blavatnik · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Feb 28, 2023
- Eric Levin · Last reported as EVP & Chief Financial Officer in an SEC filing dated Jan 6, 2023
- Oana Ruxandra · Last reported as CDO & EVP Business Dev. in an SEC filing dated Jan 6, 2023
- Thomas H Lee · Last reported as a director in an SEC filing dated Mar 2, 2022
- Tencent Holdings Ltd · Last reported as a 10% owner in an SEC filing dated Jun 12, 2020
WMG Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-10-07What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | ZERZA ARMIN | Former Officer | 20,245 | $552.5K | 2026-10-07 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-03 | Armin Zerza | Officer | 63,299 | $1.87M | 2026-09-03 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-04-02 | Matusch Timothy | Officer | 1,000 | $31.4K | 2025-04-02 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-02-14 | Matusch Timothy | Officer | 1,103 | $40.2K | 2025-02-14 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-02-12 | Osherova Maria | Officer | 6,553 | $222.2K | 2025-02-12 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-12-11 | MAX GEORGE LOUSADA | Affiliate | 385,475 | $12.52M | 2024-12-11 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-12-10 | MAX GEORGE LOUSADA | Affiliate | 458,534 | $14.77M | 2024-12-10 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-12-09 | MAX GEORGE LOUSADA | Affiliate | 25,000 | $808.8K | 2024-12-09 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-09-03 | MAX GEORGE LOUSADA | Affiliate | 934,467 | $26.40M | 2024-09-03 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2023-12-05 | MAX GEORGE LOUSADA | Affiliate | 869,008 | $28.99M | 2023-12-05 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Event | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Other events | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-25 | Material agreement | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-22 | Director or officer change | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-04 | Director or officer change | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-05 | Earnings results · Other events | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-03 | Earnings results · Regulation FD disclosure | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-31 | Director or officer change | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-07 | Earnings results | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-11 | Material agreement · New debt obligation | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-06 | Shareholder vote results | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | 0001319161-25-000034 | EDGAR |
| 2024-11-21 | 0001319161-24-000039 | EDGAR |
| 2023-11-21 | 0001319161-23-000036 | EDGAR |
| 2022-11-22 | 0001319161-22-000035 | EDGAR |
| 2021-11-23 | 0001319161-21-000036 | EDGAR |
| 2020-11-23 | 0001319161-20-000032 | EDGAR |
| 2019-11-27 | 0001319161-19-000010 | EDGAR |
| 2018-12-20 | 0001564590-18-031166 | EDGAR |
| 2017-12-05 | 0001564590-17-024528 | EDGAR |
| 2016-12-08 | 0001564590-16-029963 | EDGAR |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 0001319161-26-000032 | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-07 | 0001319161-26-000022 | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-09 | 0001319161-26-000010 | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-07 | 0001319161-25-000023 | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-08 | 0001319161-25-000016 | EDGAR |
| 2025-02-06 | 0001319161-25-000007 | EDGAR |
| 2024-08-07 | 0001319161-24-000027 | EDGAR |
| 2024-05-09 | 0001319161-24-000020 | EDGAR |
| 2024-02-08 | 0001319161-24-000010 | EDGAR |
| 2023-08-08 | 0001319161-23-000027 | EDGAR |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJH iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.14% | $170.2M | $124.0B | 2026-11-11 |
| 2 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $122.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $87.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 4 | VBK Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF | Vanguard | 0.11% | $48.6M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 5 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $45.9M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | MDY State Street® SPDR® S&P MIDCAP 400® ETF Trust | SPDR (State Street) | 0.13% | $35.2M | $26.1B | 2026-11-11 |
| 7 | SPMD State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 400™ Mid Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.14% | $25.9M | $19.1B | 2026-11-11 |
| 8 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.09% | $19.7M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 9 | IJK iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.14% | $15.4M | $10.4B | 2026-11-11 |
| 10 | RSMC Rockefeller U.S. Small-Mid Cap ETF | Nport | 1.89% | $14.4M | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 11 | VOX Vanguard Communication Services ETF | Vanguard | 0.20% | $12.8M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 12 | DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.03% | $12.0M | $45.9B | 2026-11-11 |
| 13 | IJJ iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.13% | $11.1M | $8.7B | 2026-11-11 |
| 14 | DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF | Dimensional | 0.01% | $10.5M | — | 2026-11-11 |
| 15 | AQEC AQE Core ETF | Nport | 1.44% | $8.3M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | DON WisdomTree U.S. Midcap Dividend Fund | Nport | 0.20% | $7.9M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 17 | IVOO Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF | Vanguard | 0.12% | $6.8M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 18 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $6.0M | $96.0B | 2026-11-11 |
| 19 | FYC First Trust Small Cap Growth AlphaDEX® Fund | First Trust | 0.43% | $5.9M | $1.4B | 2026-11-11 |
| 20 | CDC VictoryShares US EQ Income Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF | Nport | 0.81% | $5.8M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 21 | FNDA Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company ETF | Nport | 0.06% | $5.6M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 22 | DGRW WisdomTree U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Fund | Nport | 0.03% | $5.3M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 23 | RWK Invesco S&P MidCap 400 Revenue ETF | Invesco | 0.32% | $4.4M | — | 2026-11-11 |
| 24 | MDYG State Street® SPDR® S&P 400™ Mid Cap Growth ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.15% | $4.2M | $2.9B | 2026-11-11 |
| 25 | HELO JPMorgan Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETF | JPMorgan | 0.08% | $3.7M | $4.9B | 2026-11-12 |
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $1.86B | $58.00M | $0.38 | $142.00M |
| Q2 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $1.73B | $130.00M | $0.34 | $126.00M |
| Q1 '26 | 2025-12-31 | $1.84B | $176.00M | $0.33 | $440.00M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $1.87B | $31.00M | $0.20 | $231.00M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $1.69B | $-4.00M | $-0.03 | $46.00M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $1.48B | $26.00M | $0.07 | $69.00M |
| Q1 '25 | 2024-12-31 | $1.67B | $236.00M | $0.45 | $332.00M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $1.63B | $10.00M | $0.08 | $304.00M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $1.55B | $37.00M | $0.27 | $188.00M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $1.49B | $96.00M | $0.18 | $-31.00M |
| Q1 '24 | 2023-12-31 | $1.75B | $159.00M | $0.30 | $293.00M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $1.59B | $-165.00M | $0.29 | $338.00M |
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
WMG vs Peers
Related companies, largest first| Company | Market cap | P/E | Revenue growth | YTD | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Nvidia Corp | $4.01T | 20.6 | +83.4% | −13.8% | 95 |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock | $3.67T | 15.4 | +22.2% | −6.3% | 49 |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stoc | $1.59T | 21.9 | +27.5% | −1.3% | 31 |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $236.0B | 27.4 | +38.6% | +169.0% | 80 |
| SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | $123.0B | — | — | +6.6% | 7 |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment Inc. | $42.5B | — | +10.8% | +23.3% | 17 |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common | $16.6B | 26.0 | +12.9% | +6.6% | 21 |
| MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp | $3.7B | 39.0 | +16.4% | +45.6% | 29 |
| SONO Sonos, Inc. Common Stock | $2.1B | 41.0 | +5.6% | +3.1% | 16 |
| Peer median | $179.5B | 24.6 | +22.2% | +4.9% | 30 |
P/E uses the latest reported trailing-12-month diluted EPS; "—" means no positive earnings or no data.
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.