2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Favorite28%Democrats, 8 to 10%
Favorite
28%
Runner-up
24%
Biggest 24h move+2 pts
28%
24h volume
$240K
Current odds
one winnerDemocrats, 8 to 10%
28%
+2
Republicans win
4%
-2
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
Where the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Republicans winYES $4K · NO $143K · 20 orders · biggest $24K
- Democrats, 8 to 10%YES $23K · NO $4K · 5 orders · biggest $7K
- Democrats, 12 to 14%YES $12K · NO $1K · 6 orders · biggest $4K
- Democrats, 10 to 12%YES $11K · NO $0 · 4 orders · biggest $5K
- Democrats, 14 to 16%YES $0 · NO $4K · 1 orders · biggest $4K
- Democrats, 6 to 8%YES $1K · NO $2K · 2 orders · biggest $2K
- Democrats, 0 to 2%YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Democrats, 16% and aboveYES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | YES | 28¢ | $7K | |
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | YES | 27¢ | $3K | |
| Republicans win | NO | 96¢ | $13K | |
| Republicans win | NO | 96¢ | $1K | |
| Republicans win | NO | 94¢ | $2K | |
| Republicans win | NO | 94¢ | $2K | |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | YES | 25¢ | $2K | |
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | NO | 98¢ | $2K | |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | YES | 25¢ | $1K | |
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | YES | 26¢ | $6K |
All outcomes
10| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | 28% | +2.5 | $63K | $244K |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | 24% | +0.5 | $18K | $196K |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | 14% | -0.5 | $8K | $141K |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 14% | -0.5 | $9K | $218K |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | 5% | -0.9 | $14K | $177K |
| Democrats, 14 to 16% | 4% | — | $5K | $154K |
| Republicans win | 4% | -1.8 | $73K | $933K |
| Democrats, 16% and above | 4% | — | $12K | $199K |
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | 3% | — | $21K | $247K |
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | 1% | -0.7 | $16K | $366K |