Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?
chance of YES28%
+2.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
24–30%
24h volume
62.8K
Open interest
243.7K
Bid / ask
28¢ / 29¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.0¢ | 320 | 29.0¢ | 508 |
| 27.0¢ | 90,606 | 30.0¢ | 10,049 |
| 26.0¢ | 11,000 | 31.0¢ | 2,265 |
| 25.0¢ | 10,425 | 34.0¢ | 80 |
| 24.0¢ | 696 | 35.0¢ | 120 |
Mid 28.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Related stocks
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K
Democrats, 2 to 4%3%21.5K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 28¢ | 26,716 | $7K | |
| YES | 27¢ | 11,451 | $3K | |
| YES | 26¢ | 21,458 | $6K | |
| NO | 74¢ | 4,979 | $4K | |
| YES | 27¢ | 23,516 | $6K | |
| NO | 75¢ | 3,000 | $2K | |
| YES | 25¢ | 12,087 | $3K | |
| NO | 76¢ | 5,000 | $4K | |
| NO | 74¢ | 2,977 | $2K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.