Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%?
chance of YES4%
Price range (120d)
2–7%
24h volume
5.0K
Open interest
154.2K
Bid / ask
4¢ / 4¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7¢ | 2,205 | 3.8¢ | 662 |
| 3.6¢ | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | 0 |
| 3.5¢ | 500 | 4.0¢ | 10 |
| 3.4¢ | 400 | 4.1¢ | 24 |
| 3.3¢ | 1,000 | 4.3¢ | 5 |
Mid 3.8¢ · spread 0.1¢
Related stocks
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K
Democrats, 2 to 4%3%21.5K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 96¢ | 4,000 | $4K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.