Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?
chance of YES24%
+0.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
17–25%
24h volume
18.3K
Open interest
195.7K
Bid / ask
24¢ / 25¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.0¢ | 2,743 | 25.0¢ | 3,551 |
| 23.0¢ | 12,632 | 26.0¢ | 30,991 |
| 22.0¢ | 4,446 | 27.0¢ | 3 |
| 21.0¢ | 373 | 28.0¢ | 35,000 |
| 20.0¢ | 441 | 29.0¢ | 0 |
Mid 24.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Related stocks
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K
Democrats, 2 to 4%3%21.5K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 25¢ | 10,000 | $2K | |
| YES | 25¢ | 5,400 | $1K | |
| YES | 24¢ | 19,406 | $5K | |
| YES | 23¢ | 12,794 | $3K | |
| YES | 20¢ | 9,302 | $2K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.