Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?
chance of YES14%
-0.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
7–14%
24h volume
9.5K
Open interest
217.7K
Bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0¢ | 11,089 | 14.0¢ | 4,938 |
| 12.0¢ | 6,201 | 15.0¢ | 6,995 |
| 11.0¢ | 2,101 | 16.0¢ | 13,008 |
| 10.0¢ | 1,060 | 17.0¢ | 1,001 |
| 9.9¢ | 1,000 | 18.0¢ | 250 |
Mid 13.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Related stocks
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K
Democrats, 2 to 4%3%21.5K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 14¢ | 8,771 | $1K | |
| YES | 14¢ | 21,000 | $3K | |
| YES | 14¢ | 20,000 | $3K | |
| YES | 13¢ | 9,560 | $1K | |
| YES | 12¢ | 31,093 | $4K | |
| NO | 89¢ | 1,425 | $1K | |
| YES | 12¢ | 34,232 | $4K | |
| YES | 10¢ | 22,500 | $2K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.