Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?
chance of YES5%
-0.9pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
5–13%
24h volume
13.5K
Open interest
176.9K
Bid / ask
6¢ / 6¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4¢ | 222 | 6.5¢ | 4,736 |
| 5.7¢ | 29 | 8.2¢ | 108 |
| 5.6¢ | 143 | 8.3¢ | 548 |
| 5.4¢ | 63 | 8.4¢ | 5,015 |
| 5.3¢ | 30 | 8.5¢ | 1,611 |
Mid 6.5¢ · spread 0.1¢
Related stocks
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K
Democrats, 2 to 4%3%21.5K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 93¢ | 1,611 | $2K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 4,945 | $5K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 2,500 | $2K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 1,500 | $1K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 2,500 | $2K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 3,000 | $3K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 2,000 | $2K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.