Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?
chance of YES14%
-0.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
15–24%
24h volume
7.9K
Open interest
141.4K
Bid / ask
14¢ / 15¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0¢ | 20,555 | 15.0¢ | 4,298 |
| 13.0¢ | 488 | 16.0¢ | 1,705 |
| 12.0¢ | 7,500 | 17.0¢ | 11,598 |
| 11.0¢ | 18 | 18.0¢ | 3,000 |
| 10.0¢ | 1 | 19.0¢ | 3,000 |
Mid 14.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Related stocks
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K
Democrats, 2 to 4%3%21.5K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 86¢ | 2,000 | $2K | |
| YES | 15¢ | 6,936 | $1K | |
| NO | 84¢ | 30,018 | $25K | |
| YES | 17¢ | 8,644 | $1K | |
| NO | 84¢ | 6,295 | $5K | |
| NO | 81¢ | 9,888 | $8K | |
| NO | 78¢ | 1,420 | $1K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.