K KalshiPolitics & Elections

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Polls & election odds

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Preview
chance of YES3%
Price range (120d)
3–7%
30d -45 pts · 7d +0 pts
24h volume
21.5K
$1 contracts
Open interest
246.9K
contracts outstanding
Bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
spread 0.7¢

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Order book

top 5
BidSizeAskSize
5.0¢ 2,350 5.7¢ 26
4.3¢ 12 5.8¢ 1,483
4.2¢ 86 5.9¢ 87,142
3.0¢ 39 6.0¢ 987
2.9¢ 215 7.0¢ 1,000

Mid 5.3¢ · spread 0.7¢

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We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
NO97¢ 1,100$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.