K KalshiPolitics & Elections

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%?

Settles Nov 03, 2027 (368d) All outcomes: 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Polls & election odds

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Preview
chance of YES1% -0.7pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
1–6%
30d -62 pts · 7d -38 pts
24h volume
15.5K
$1 contracts
Open interest
366.0K
contracts outstanding
Bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
spread 0.9¢

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Order book

top 5
BidSizeAskSize
1.9¢ 100 2.8¢ 1,400
1.8¢ 123 2.9¢ 5,000
1.7¢ 57 3.0¢ 5,036
1.6¢ 101 3.1¢ 0
1.5¢ 150 3.2¢ 800

Mid 2.4¢ · spread 0.9¢

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We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Democrats, 8 to 10%28%62.8K
Democrats, 10 to 12%24%18.3K
Democrats, 6 to 8%14%7.9K
Democrats, 12 to 14%14%9.5K
Democrats, 4 to 6%5%13.5K
Democrats, 14 to 16%4%5.0K
Republicans win4%73.4K
Democrats, 16% and above4%12.5K

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
NO98¢ 2,031$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.