Seeking AlphaT3·28mo ago
TUA Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF
ETF 19.29 DelayedETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
TUA
$19.29
—
Key stats
$19.29
- 52-Week Range
- $18.90 – $22.26
- YTD
- -11.92%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 46.6
- Straddle Price
- $0.85
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.00
- Open
- $19.35
- Day Range
- $19.23 – $19.37
- Volume
- 136,756
- Prev Close
- $19.31
About
Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) ETF
No description available.
- Exchange
- ARCX
- Inception
- 2022-11-14
- Has Options
- Yes
Fund profile
holdings as of Jun 30, 2026SEC filingthrough Jun 2026flows, SEC filings
- Expense ratio
- 0.25% prospectus, filed Oct 31, 2025
- Assets
- $751M SEC filing, Jun 30, 2026
- Trailing yield
- 3.21% paid monthly
- Average daily volume
- $9.1M 30 sessions
- Holdings
- 8 top 10 are 99.1%
- Listed
- Nov 14, 2022 NYSE Arca
- Last fee change
- +10 bp filed Oct 31, 2025
Cost53
Liquidity65
Scale70
Diversification0
Moves with. High yield over Treasuries (25% of its variance, beta -0.90); Long Treasuries (11% of its variance, beta 0.14); US large-cap stocks (7% of its variance, beta 0.16); US dollar (4% of its variance, beta -0.14). These factors explain 55% of its daily moves over the last year.
Stated objective. Investment Objective: The Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (the Fund or TUA) seeks to provide total return, before fees and expenses, that matches or outperforms the performance of the ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index on a calendar quarter basis. The Fund does not seek to achieve its stated investment objective over a period of time different than a full calendar quarter. (from the fund's prospectus)
All 8 holdingsFlow historyOverlap toolAll Short-Term Treasury ETFs
Fund flows
through Jun 2026SEC filings- Jun 2026
- +$2.9M latest reported month
- Latest 3 months
- −$44M −5.8% of assets
- Latest 12 months
- +$137M +18.3% of assets
View as a table
| Month | Net flow |
|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | +$2.9M |
| May 2026 | −$37M |
| Apr 2026 | −$9.5M |
| Mar 2026 | +$154M |
| Feb 2026 | +$44M |
| Jan 2026 | −$9.1M |
| Dec 2025 | −$8.8M |
| Nov 2025 | +$12M |
| Oct 2025 | +$23M |
| Sep 2025 | −$11M |
| Aug 2025 | +$4.9M |
| Jul 2025 | −$29M |
Net creations and redemptions from the fund's SEC filings, which become public about 60 days after each quarter. Every month since 45 months ago
Similar funds
| Fund | Overlap | Fee | Assets | 1Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGSHVanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | — | 0.03% | $35.1B | −2.2% | compare |
| SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | — | 0.15% | $27.1B | −2.1% | compare |
| SCHOSchwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | — | 0.03% | $15.6B | −2.3% | compare |
| SPTSState Street SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF | — | 0.03% | $7.2B | −2.3% | compare |
| TBLLInvesco Short Term Treasury ETF | — | 0.08% | $2.7B | −0.4% | compare |
The largest other funds in the Short-Term Treasury category.
What changed in the portfolio
Mar 31, 2026 → Jun 30, 2026| Action | Holding | Weight before | Weight after | Shares vs flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New position | SBILSIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS | — | 86.08% | — |
1 new, 0 exited, 0 increased and 0 decreased between the fund's two latest holdings reports; turnover 96.5%. Full holdings and history
Under the hood
fiscal year to Jun 30, 2026SEC census- Authorized participants
- 4 active of 16 with agreements; top 3 did 95%
- Created · redeemed
- $384M · $247M over the fiscal year
- Redemptions in kind
- 0% creations 0% in kind
- Creation unit
- 25,000 shares
- Securities lending
- not authorized
From the fund's annual census filing with the SEC. In-kind redemptions are what let an ETF shed appreciated securities without realising gains.
ETF Profile
holdings as of 2026-06-30
Holdings
8
AUM
$746.5M
Provider
Nport
Inception
2022-11-14
Exchange
ARCX
Data As Of
2026-06-30
Expense Ratio
0.25%
Dividend Yield
3.22%
Distribution
Monthly
Recent distributions
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-30 | $0.0800 | CD |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-08-31 | $0.0500 | CD |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-31 | $0.0500 | CD |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-06-30 | $0.0500 | CD |
| 2026-05-26 | 2026-05-29 | $0.0500 | CD |
| 2026-04-27 | 2026-04-30 | $0.0500 | CD |
Asset Allocation
Top Holdings
top 8 of 8 holdings
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Asset Class | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBIL | SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS | 86.08% | Equity (common) | US |
| — | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT | 4.92% | Debt | US |
| — | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT | 3.40% | Debt | US |
| — | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT | 1.92% | Debt | US |
| — | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT | 1.71% | Debt | US |
| — | DREYFUS TRSY OBLIG CASH M | 1.21% | Short-term investment | US |
| — | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT | 1.05% | Debt | US |
| — | BOARD OF TRADE OF THE CITY OF CHICAGO, INC. | -0.90% | Derivative (interest rate) | US |
Non-Equity Breakdown
Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF ·
NPORT-P period 2026-06-30
(filed 2026-08-24)
Net assets:
$751M
· 8 total positions
· equity 86.08%
· non-equity 13.31%
Non-equity holdings
— 7 positions,
13.31% of NAV
| Category | Weight | Value | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury | 13.01% | $97.7M | 5 |
| Short-term investment | 1.21% | $9.1M | 1 |
| Derivative (interest rate) | -0.90% | $-6794546 | 1 |
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | 1.33% | 0.09% | 0.47% | -0.59% | 0.33% |
| Feb | -- | -6.88% | -4.64% | 2.73% | 1.57% | -1.80% |
| Mar | -- | 8.15% | -1.40% | 0.37% | -3.30% | 0.96% |
| Apr | -- | -1.23% | -3.60% | 2.32% | -0.71% | -0.81% |
| May | -- | -3.18% | 0.38% | -2.20% | -0.93% | -1.48% |
| Jun | -- | -6.72% | 0.42% | 1.66% | -0.90% | -1.39% |
| Jul | -- | -0.27% | 4.10% | -1.97% | -0.81% | 0.26% |
| Aug | -- | 0.13% | 1.03% | 0.05% | -0.64% | 0.14% |
| Sep | -- | -2.37% | 1.37% | -0.14% | -4.82% | -1.49% |
| Oct | -- | 0.00% | -5.85% | -0.59% | 0.21%* | -1.56% |
| Nov | -0.11% | 2.14% | -0.37% | 0.59% | -- | 0.56% |
| Dec | -2.07% | 1.94% | -1.26% | 0.06% | -- | -0.33% |
| Total | -2.18% | -7.59% | -9.70% | 3.28% | -10.53% | -5.34% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $19.21
SMA 50: $19.68
SMA 200: $20.68
Current: $19.28
EMA 12: $19.29
EMA 26: $19.37
MACD: -0.0712 | Signal: 0.0475
BEARISH
ADX (14): 31.52
TREND
+DI: 18.28
−DI: 26.35
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 44.79
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 63.97
Stoch %D: 72.98
Williams %R: -43.43
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $19.45
BB Lower: $18.97
NEUTRAL
OBV: 6,226,951
Vol SMA 20: 350,936
Vol ROC: 9.54%
ATR: $0.15
True Range: $0.14
HV 20: 6.8%
HV 30: 9.0%
HV 60: 7.9%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-23T00:00:00 – 2026-10-21T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Here is the LLM Stock Analysis Report for TUA:
Executive Summary
BULLISH (Confidence Level 6/10)
Key drivers: Technical support from SMA 50 and EMA 12, neutral news sentiment.
Primary risks: Volatility regime shift to high risk if price breaks below $19.90, options market pricing a significant move by expiration.
Investment thesis: TUA is poised for a potential upmove as technical indicators align with recent news sentiment. However, the stock's low volatility and beta indicate a defensive posture, which may limit its upside potential.
Recent news sentiment impact: Neutral overall, but individual headlines like "Monetary Support Suggests Bear Market Is Possibly Over" could have contributed to the current price action.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term: Uptrend (20-day SMA $20.29) Medium-term: Range-bound (50-day SMA $20.31) Long-term: Uptrend (200-day SMA $21.08)
Support/Resistance Levels: Upper: $20.67 Middle: $20.29 Lower: $19.90
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (35.28) - no clear buy or sell signal.
- MACD signal: Bearish (-0.09 / Signal: -0.04 / Histogram: -0.06)
- Bollinger Bands position: Neutral (price within the bands)
Volume Analysis: Volume SMA 20: 188068.80 On-Balance Volume (OBV): 12247803.44 Volume Rate of Change: 23.39% (indicating increasing volume and potential for a continued uptrend)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: Neutral news sentiment overall, with no clear catalysts driving the price action.
Sentiment Assessment: Neutral (4 out of 6 headlines neutral, 1 bearish, 1 bullish)
Catalyst Identification: None identified from recent news headlines.
Market Narrative: The technical analysis indicates a potential upmove, while the news sentiment is neutral. This divergence may be resolved in the short-term as the market navigates the current price action.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Assessment: Beta: 0.11 (low volatility) Alpha: -0.12 Correlation: 0.21 Stock Volatility: 0.07 (indicating low risk)
Options Market Signals: IV Rank: 9.9% (low IV indicating historically low volatility) Current IV: 32.4% Expected Move: $8.32 (37 DTE), 7-DTE: $1.20
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: TUA's performance is neutral compared to the broader market.
Institutional Activity: Volume patterns suggest institutional interest, but no clear buy or sell signals are present.
Correlation Analysis: R-squared interpretation: Positive correlation with the broader market (0.21)
Relative Valuation: TUA's price is within a trading range, indicating a defensive posture and limited upside potential.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support/resistance to monitor: $19.90, $20.29
- Breakout/breakdown levels: $20.67 (upper band), $19.98 (current price)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Earnings date not available; no other catalysts identified.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations: Given the low volatility, a stop-loss level around $19.80 could be used to manage risk.
Generated
News
All TUA news →
Seeking AlphaT3·36mo ago
Seeking AlphaT3·36mo ago
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MarketWatchT3·40mo ago
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TUA Options Activity & IV Rank
TUA IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 32.0%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $0.85
7-DTE Move: $0.85
Days to Exp: 30 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 20
Put Volume: 20
P/C Volume: 1.0
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 20
Put OI: 10
P/C OI: 0.5
Total OI: 30
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $0.47
ATM Put: $0.38
Call %: 2.5%
Put %: 1.9%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 347
Chain OI: 4,637
Last Updated: 10/21/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 57th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
57%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.84
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.57
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.64
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.57: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.64: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 7 ATM contracts, 0k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 21 · No data
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 21 · ATM 13.9% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)46.6MediumOct 21
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$0.85Oct 21
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.1452
Alpha: -16.16%
Correlation: 0.2557
R-Squared: 6.5%
Stock Volatility: 7.2%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
TUA Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
1 filers$1.87M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $1.87M | 100.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
61.92K
SI % of Float
—
Days to Cover
1.00
Short Vol Ratio
52.7%
Free Float
—
Float %
—
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-21
TUA Constituent Performance
Click any bar to view the full quote for that stock.
TUA Constituents (1 of 1)
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Price | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBIL | SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS | 86.08% | $100.3 | +0.01% | +0.07% | +0.01% |