Biggest prediction-market swings, last 24 hours

Kalshi and Polymarket questions whose odds moved the most since yesterday: where each stood a day ago, where it trades now, and how much changed hands.

updated
10+ point swings
8
of 145 markets on this list
Up / down
75 / 70
markets whose odds rose vs. fell
24h volume
$14.8M
traded in the markets on this list
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Movers

top 100 of 145 · 24h
Market24h ago → nowMove24h volSettles
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat? Dan Green (R)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
68% → 46%
-22 $10K Nov 04, 2026
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
39% → 64%
+25 $9K Nov 04, 2026
Will Republican win the House race for FL-09? Dan Green
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
67% → 46%
-21 $7K Nov 03, 2027
Who will win the Wisconsin State Assembly? Republican party
K Politics & Elections
18% → 28%
+11 $6K Jan 18, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for AZ-2? Jonathan Nez
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
32% → 42%
+9 $10K Nov 03, 2027
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Florida be at least 3 percentage points? Donalds, 3+ pts
K Politics & Elections · +2 more outcomes moved
54% → 46%
-8 $34K Nov 03, 2027
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
P Politics & Elections
28% → 36%
+9 $10K Dec 31, 2026
Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election? Mike Thompson
K Politics & Elections
58% → 52%
-7 $6K Nov 03, 2027
Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
34% → 24%
-10 $479K Nov 03, 2027
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?
P Politics & Elections
15% → 25%
+10 $7K Dec 31, 2026
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
31% → 20%
-11 $305K Nov 04, 2026
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 8 percentage points? Shah, 8+ pts
K Politics & Elections
41% → 33%
-8 $6K Nov 03, 2027
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
30% → 38%
+8 $52K Jan 01, 2027
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
44% → 36%
-8 $5K Jan 01, 2027
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat? Leela Gray (D)
P Politics & Elections
31% → 38%
+7 $7K Nov 04, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
P Politics & Elections · +2 more outcomes moved
24% → 31%
+8 $19K Jan 01, 2027
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
10% → 19%
+10 $8K Jan 01, 2027
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%? Jolly 0-3%
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
17% → 25%
+8 $7K Nov 04, 2026
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points? James Talarico, 2+ pts
K Politics & Elections · +6 more outcomes moved
63% → 57%
-6 $31K Nov 03, 2027
Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
28% → 18%
-9 $38K Oct 27, 2027
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
44% → 49%
+6 $28K Nov 03, 2026
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Richard Hudson (R)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
67% → 61%
-6 $28K Nov 04, 2026
Will Republican win the House race for NC-09? Richard Hudson
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
68% → 62%
-6 $73K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? David Jolly (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
30% → 36%
+6 $99K Nov 04, 2026
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-07? Bale Dalton
K Politics & Elections
27% → 33%
+6 $9K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
62% → 68%
+6 $48K Nov 04, 2026
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
53% → 58%
+5 $9K Nov 08, 2026
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat? Bale Dalton (D)
P Politics & Elections
28% → 34%
+6 $9K Nov 04, 2026
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more? Cooper 18%+
P Politics & Elections
19% → 25%
+6 $7K Nov 04, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
P Politics & Elections · +4 more outcomes moved
40% → 44%
+5 $71K Jan 01, 2027
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida Byron Donalds
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
70% → 64%
-5 $521K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine? Troy Jackson
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
64% → 68%
+5 $235K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress? Above 52
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
44% → 48%
+4 $189K Feb 01, 2027
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
68% → 63%
-5 $19K Jan 01, 2027
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
K Politics & Elections
48% → 44%
-4 $12K Jan 01, 2027
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? Mike Turner (R)
P Politics & Elections
67% → 72%
+5 $5K Nov 04, 2026
Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be at least 125 million? 125 million and above
K Politics & Elections
22% → 26%
+5 $9K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? Mike Beltran (R)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
27% → 22%
-6 $9K Nov 04, 2026
Will Democratic win the House race for MT-1? Sam Forstag
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
56% → 60%
+4 $6K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Paul Barringer (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
36% → 40%
+4 $140K Nov 04, 2026
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
K Politics & Elections
64% → 60%
-4 $60K Feb 01, 2027
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Roger Marshall (R)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
51% → 48%
-4 $131K Nov 04, 2026
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?
K Politics & Elections
32% → 36%
+4 $6K Jan 01, 2027
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026? Cindy Holscher (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
24% → 28%
+5 $81K Nov 04, 2026
Will Kansas Governor winner be Democratic party and Kansas Senate winner be Democratic party? Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win
K Politics & Elections
16% → 22%
+5 $11K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia Rick Jackson
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
38% → 34%
-4 $168K Nov 03, 2027
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Susan Collins
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
36% → 32%
-4 $44K Jul 07, 2027
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nebraska Lynne Walz
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
17% → 10%
-7 $7K Nov 03, 2027
Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027? Democratic party wins
K Politics & Elections
66% → 70%
+4 $8K Jan 01, 2027
Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?
K Politics & Elections
76% → 80%
+5 $6K Nov 02, 2027
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas? Roger Marshall
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
52% → 50%
-3 $733K Nov 03, 2027
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points? Abbott, 3+ pts
K Politics & Elections
48% → 50%
+3 $6K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kansas Ty Masterson
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
76% → 72%
-4 $17K Jan 14, 2028
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?
P Politics & Elections
20% → 14%
-6 $8K May 02, 2027
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? Below 53
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
55% → 52%
-3 $22K Feb 01, 2027
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
P Politics & Elections
22% → 26%
+4 $41K Nov 04, 2026
Will Republican win the House race for TX-23? Brandon Herrera
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
56% → 54%
-3 $117K Nov 03, 2027
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 12th District House election be at least 7 percentage points? Bilirakis, 7+ pts
K Politics & Elections
56% → 54%
-3 $5K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1? Bob Harvie
K Politics & Elections
52% → 56%
+3 $6K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14? Kathy Castor
K Politics & Elections
72% → 76%
+4 $9K Nov 03, 2027
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa? Ashley Hinson
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
54% → 56%
+3 $277K Nov 03, 2027
Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Nithya Raman
K Politics & Elections
40% → 42%
+3 $142K Jun 02, 2027
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Kansas be at least 5 percentage points? Hamilton, 5+ pts
K Politics & Elections
19% → 23%
+4 $8K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for TN-09? Justin J. Pearson
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
20% → 14%
-5 $68K Nov 03, 2027
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 10 percentage points? Moody, 10+ pts
K Politics & Elections
26% → 22%
-4 $5K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-13? Paul Barringer
K Politics & Elections
36% → 40%
+3 $58K Nov 03, 2027
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Oil ≥ $85; R Senate
P Politics & Elections
32% → 28%
-4 $8K Nov 04, 2026
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
P Politics & Elections
31% → 28%
-4 $10K Nov 04, 2026
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? Lynne Walz (D)
P Politics & Elections
16% → 10%
-6 $7K Nov 04, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
P Politics & Elections
34% → 36%
+3 $11K Jul 01, 2027
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
K Politics & Elections
24% → 20%
-4 $6K Oct 27, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for OH-9? Derek Merrin
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
24% → 20%
-4 $29K Nov 03, 2027
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
23% → 26%
+4 $7K Jan 01, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for NY-17? Mike Lawler
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
38% → 36%
-3 $34K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Gina Hinojosa (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
38% → 36%
-3 $45K Nov 04, 2026
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
P Politics & Elections
30% → 27%
-3 $8K Nov 04, 2026
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? IA, KS
P Politics & Elections · +2 more outcomes moved
8% → 12%
+5 $834K Nov 03, 2026
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas Greg Abbott
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
62% → 66%
+3 $787K Nov 03, 2027
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 5 percentage points? El-Sayed, 5+ pts
K Politics & Elections
38% → 34%
-3 $11K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election? Hamilton Wins
P Politics & Elections
49% → 52%
+3 $9K Nov 04, 2026
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Troy Jackson (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
66% → 70%
+3 $47K Nov 04, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
P Politics & Elections · +2 more outcomes moved
39% → 42%
+3 $17K Jan 01, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for OH-10? Mike Turner
K Politics & Elections
68% → 72%
+3 $8K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%? Democrats, 8 to 10%
K Politics & Elections
26% → 28%
+3 $63K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
32% → 28%
-3 $837K Nov 04, 2026
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points? Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
24% → 28%
+3 $17K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada Aaron Ford
K Politics & Elections
78% → 74%
-3 $654K Nov 03, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for TX-35? Carlos De La Cruz
K Politics & Elections
28% → 24%
-3 $24K Nov 03, 2027
Will the Democratic party win the Attorney General race in Iowa? Nate Willems
K Politics & Elections
27% → 24%
-3 $9K Nov 03, 2027
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan? Mike Rogers
K Politics & Elections
26% → 24%
-3 $974K Nov 03, 2027
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race? Mike Rogers
K Politics & Elections
26% → 24%
-3 $96K Nov 03, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for MI-10? Michael Bouchard Jr.
K Politics & Elections
26% → 24%
-3 $35K Nov 03, 2027
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
P Politics & Elections
24% → 22%
-3 $36K Jan 01, 2027
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
P Politics & Elections
17% → 20%
+3 $10K Apr 19, 2027
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Abdul El-Sayed (D)
P Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
76% → 80%
+3 $764K Nov 04, 2026
Will Democratic win the House race for ME-2? Matt Dunlap
K Politics & Elections
44% → 46%
+2 $8K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03? Raymond Smith Jr.
K Politics & Elections
42% → 44%
+2 $88K Nov 03, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for NY-01? Nick LaLota
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
78% → 80%
+3 $26K Nov 03, 2027
Will Republican win the House race for KS-02? Derek Schmidt
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
78% → 80%
+3 $15K Nov 03, 2027
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-02? Patrick Halpin
K Politics & Elections · +1 more outcome moved
22% → 18%
-3 $57K Nov 03, 2027

Showing the top 100 of 145. Raise the minimum move or volume, or pick a category, to see the rest.

About this list

What counts as a swing. The change in a market's YES price since the same time yesterday, in percentage points. Only markets with real trading count: at least the volume you pick (default $5K) in the last 24 hours. A market whose best bid and best ask are more than 10 points apart is left out too, because the price halfway between them is not one anyone traded at.

Live questions only. Markets that have effectively resolved (priced under 8% or over 92%), contracts settling within 36 hours and brand-new listings are left out, so a result being recorded or a first trade doesn't read as a change of mind. Sports are excluded unless you pick the Sports category.

Ranking. "Biggest swings" weighs the size of the move by how much doubt remains, so a 30% → 60% swing outranks a 90% → 99% one. Sort by "Most points" for the raw move.

One line per event. Outcomes in the same event usually move together (every rung of a "Bitcoin above $X" ladder, every candidate in a race), so each event shows its biggest mover and a count of the others. Tick "Show every outcome" to list them all.

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